Iran readying for war with Israel as it braces for response to missile attack — NYT
Strike on oil or nuclear sites could lead Tehran to take drastic measures for fear of seeming weak, but attack on weapons depots or military bases may not warrant further response
Iran is readying for war with Israel while at the same time seeking to avoid one, according to a Thursday report, and its next steps will be determined by Israel’s response to Tehran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack, the outline of which was said to have been approved in recent days.
Citing four Iranian officials, The New York Times reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran’s armed forces to formulate numerous plans based on the potential outcome of an expected retaliatory attack by Israel, which has been weeks in the making. “Iran has ordered the armed forces to be prepared for war but also to try to avoid it,” the report said.
The officials, two of whom belong to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that if Israel were to inflict significant damage on sensitive sites, such as oil and nuclear facilities, or if it were to target senior Iranian officials, Iran would without a doubt escalate further.
In this instance, the sources said, Iran could fire a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles — a significant step up in comparison to the 200 it fired on October 1 — or even disrupt global energy supplies and international trade routes.
However, if Jerusalem were to limit its response to striking weapons warehouses or military bases, Tehran may conclude that it is in its best interest to do nothing, bringing an end to the latest round of direct conflict between the two countries.
Israel had previously been thought to be mulling attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure or nuclear sites, both opposed by the US for their potential to escalate fighting, including Iranian reprisals aimed at civilian infrastructure in Israel or other regional countries aligned with the West.
Iranian leaders publicly maintain that they are not seeking to descend into an all-out regional war, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi went on an intensive regional tour last week to stress that point. However, they also fear looking weak, the report said, and a heavy blow at the hands of Israel could leave them vulnerable and feeling as though they must reassert dominance in the region.
Iran’s efforts to appear strong even amid the heavy blows dealt to its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza were apparent in the threats it issued against Israel and its allies, even as Araghchi tried to reassure the world that escalation was the last thing Tehran wanted.
IRGC chief Hossein Salami warned on Thursday that even with the assistance of an advanced US missile defense system recently stationed in Israel, it wouldn’t be able to ward off future attacks from Tehran.
“Just as the Arrow anti-missile systems did not work during Operation True Promise 2, the THAAD systems will not work either. Do not rely on THAAD, they have limited capabilities,” Russian state news agency TASS quoted Salami as saying.
Iran dubbed its October 1 “Operation True Promise 2,” following its April attack, which it called “Operation True Promise 1.”
The THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System, is a critical part of the US military’s layered air defense systems and adds to Israel’s already formidable anti-missile defenses.
“You cannot win this conflict, we will destroy you,” Salami threatened.
The Islamic Republic has been bracing for an Israeli reprisal after its latest direct attack on Israel, in which it fired 200 ballistic missiles that sent most of Israel to bomb shelters on October 1, killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank, and caused damage in residential areas and at military bases — although the IDF said that the attack had no operational impact.
Iran said that the attack came in response to strikes in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of the terror group’s senior leadership last month, as well as the killing of Hamas politburo leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, which has been widely blamed on Israel despite its silence on the matter.
Israel’s plans for retaliation were said to have been thrown off course recently after confidential US documents on the matter were leaked last Friday, revealing US observations of measures taken by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16 in the lead-up to an attack.
Amid reports that Israel had been forced to change tactics and delay its plans as a result of the leak, Army Radio quoted an unnamed Israeli official on Thursday who insisted that this was not the case.
“There’s no connection between the leaking of the documents from the Pentagon and the choice of timing for the attack on Iran,” the official said.
While several windows had been discussed, the official said that no final date had been set for Israel’s response and the decision would be made “according to operational opportunities.”
At the same time, the Kan public broadcaster reported Thursday that the Israeli Air Force has completed its preparations for the reprisal and is now waiting for the political leadership to set it in motion.
The plans have been approved by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a security official told Kan, and it is now just a matter of deciding on an appropriate time to launch the attack.