From the Liveblog of
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast: Clinton has 71% chance of winning, Trump 29%
Add ToI as a Preferred Source on GoogleFiveThirtyEight updates yet again, posting its final forecast just a few minutes ago.
Our final forecast of the year just published! Clinton is a 71% favorite in polls-only, 72% in polls-plus. https://t.co/UxLqelkmvP pic.twitter.com/yTXPTLF5Ri
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2016
The upshot: Hillary Clinton has a 71.4% chance of winning the election. Donald Trump has a 28.6% chance.
That’s the “polls only” forecast. The “polls-plus” forecast that factors in how polls performed historically in light of factors such as the state of the economy puts Clinton only slightly higher, at 71.8% to Trump’s 28.2%.
Hillary leads in all-important Florida by 54.6% to 45.4% — a razor’s edge. (Reminder: That’s her chances of winning, not level of support. RealClearPolitics shows a combined polling average in the state of 46.6% support for Trump to 46.4% for Clinton.)
North Carolina, the second state Trump hopes to pull into his column — if he gets both Florida and North Carolina, with the rest of FiveThirtyEight’s prediction holding steady, then he’s the next president — shows Clinton with a similarly close 54.9% chance of winning to Trump’s 45.1%.
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