Op-ed

Netanyahu couldn’t let Sinwar emerge victorious from a hostage deal. Now he doesn’t have to

The elimination of the Hamas terror chief provides the PM with compelling reasons to push for a deal, even at the cost of withdrawing the IDF from Gaza for a while

Shalom Yerushalmi

Shalom Yerushalmi is the political analyst for Zman Israel, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew current affairs website

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) and his hostages pointman Gal Hirsch, pictured at the start of the Sukkot holiday, October 16, 2024. (Courtesy)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) and his hostages pointman Gal Hirsch, pictured at the start of the Sukkot holiday, October 16, 2024. (Courtesy)

The IDF’s dramatic elimination of Hamas terror group leader Yahya Sinwar removes diplomatic, political, and cognitive barriers, opens up options, and may speed up a deal to release hostages held in the Gaza Strip if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now devotes himself to the matter and deals with it seriously.

Previously, Netanyahu could and would not conceive of a hostage deal under which Sinwar — the architect of October 7’s mass slaughter — would emerge unscathed from his Gaza bunker, seat himself comfortably in an armchair and flash a two-fingered victory signal, while a stream of hundreds and perhaps thousands of terrorists were released from Israel’s prisons.

Such a sickening scenario would symbolize defeat in the campaign against Hamas, Netanyahu said frequently in private conversations, and he would not countenance it.

Now, though, the victory picture is reversed. Sinwar is eliminated and Netanyahu can register another significant achievement in this war, after the terrible failure of October 7 for which he is responsible. The world and Israel are rightly talking about a new reality: Hamas has suffered a fatal blow and Netanyahu could submit pragmatic proposals. The way forward is to stop the war, at least for a while, and Netanyahu can do that now.

Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar sits outside his bombed Gaza office, May 27, 2021 (Courtesy)

In his Hebrew remarks to the nation on Thursday about Sinwar’s death, Netanyahu said the war was not over, but, rather, urged those Hamas terrorists holding hostages to release them in exchange for their lives. It is not certain that this offer will prove convincing. In his briefer subsequent English remarks, he did speak about ending the war — saying, “This war can end tomorrow. It can end if Hamas lays down its arms and returns our hostages.”

Incidentally, in his Hebrew address, Netanyahu tried to set out a narrative according to which his domestic political opponents wanted to stop the war while he and only he insisted on entering Gaza’s Rafah, Khan Yunis, and the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border. The reality is different. It was the Americans and other international players who tried to prevent the IDF’s entry into Rafah — where Sinwar was killed. Netanyahu’s opponents at home from the National Unity party, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, erstwhile participants in his war cabinet, did not oppose the move and, indeed, claim to have pushed for it while Netanyahu hesitated.

Additionally, many other critics and opponents at home who in recent months supported stopping the war and withdrawing the IDF from Gaza under a deal to free the hostages did not talk about ending the long-term battle to destroy Hamas. Their priority was to bring home the dwindling number of still-alive hostages, and wait for a suitable time to attack Hamas again, with refreshed and renewed IDF forces. Nobody can claim to know definitively what was really the right thing to do, but in the meantime, the hostages are dying in Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a video statement on the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on October 17, 2024. (Screen capture)

Sinwar’s elimination also neutralizes the political barriers to a hostage-ceasefire deal. After the killing of the Hamas leader, following the targeted assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon last month, Netanyahu has a greater capacity to influence the far-right Religious Zionism party.

Its leader Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced Thursday night that he had not changed his position, and would oppose what he called a “surrender deal” that, in his opinion, would throw away the war’s achievements so far.

But Smotrich and his party colleagues, who supported November’s weeklong deal that included the freeing of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel, will not leave the government, least of all after the elimination of Sinwar. No way.

“The elimination of Sinwar means there are new options,” a senior official in Religious Zionism said. “There is now the possibility of deals with middle-rankers [in Hamas]. Hamas has no real leadership and I think it is possible to reach agreements on the ground in all kinds of areas,” said this official. “That was not the case until now.”

Demonstrators protest calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by the Hamas terror group in the Gaza Strip, hours after Israel confirmed the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, October 17, 2024. (Erik Marmor/Flash90)

Netanyahu can also more effectively face down the other far-right leader, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his Otzma Yehudit party. The prime minister’s public appearances – invariably following impressive successes and not after failures – have helped bolster his popularity with the right-wing base. Recent polls have shown a marked fall in support for Otzma Yehudit, while Netanyahu’s Likud has been gaining. Ben Gvir, it should be recalled, did not leave the government over the previous deal in November, even though he voted against it.

With Hamas in greater disarray, the fate of the hostages depends more directly and largely on Netanyahu. He has the political power to try to forge a viable deal now that his coalition has expanded with last month’s arrival of Gideon Sa’ar’s four-member New Hope party. And his political interests could also be well-served by the return of the hostages, which would bring a wave of joy among a public regaining national confidence in the wake of Sinwar’s killing and the successes against Hezbollah. He would also be uniting Israel’s interests with an American government that has pressed relentlessly to stop the war and return the hostages.

And with Sinwar gone, of course, he has his victory picture.

IDF troops stand over the body believed to be Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on October 17, 2024. (Courtesy)

Translated and edited from the Hebrew original at ToI’s sister site Zman Yisrael.

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