The signal and the ploys: 7 things to know for December 26

1. Damascus? Don’t ask us: An overnight airstrike in and around Damascus is not new. But the reported target of the strike and the fact that it’s the first since the US announced its withdrawal from Syria and the largest since the downing of a Russian spy plane in October make it remarkable nonetheless.

• Newsweek, quoting US defense officials, says the airstrike targeted senior Hezbollah officials who had just boarded a plane for Iran, as well as advanced arms depots.
• “The supply points contained valuable, GPS-guided ammunition from 2017, some of the best available to the Iranian army and Hezbollah,” the magazine reports.
• However, former Military Intelligence head Amos Yadlin tells Army Radio that he “doubts the report, since Israel would not mess around with Hezbollah officials, but rather weapons coming to the terror group.” He adds that the airstrike was meant to show that changes around Syria and the region don’t mean Israel is retreating.
• Interestingly, the Observer_IL Twitter account flagged a cargo jet from Iran to Syria returning to Iran just as the strikes were taking place, though it seems at least that plane managed to take off fine.

https://twitter.com/Obs_IL/status/1077683444677820422

• As usual, Israel is mum, issuing only a statement about it shooting down an anti-aircraft missile over the country. When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is congratulated during a meeting with settler leaders, he feigns ignorance.

2. Crossed signals: In Haaretz, Amos Harel writes that the strike was indeed meant as much to send a signal as to blow things up.

• “Israel is signaling that from its perspective, it’s business as usual again: Despite Trump’s announcement and despite Russia’s fury about its Ilyushin plane getting shot down last September, Israel sees itself as free to continue attacking targets in Syria, when necessary,” he writes.
• Israel’s not the only one that knows how to signal. After Israel had to deploy its own air defenses to target an anti-aircraft missile that was apparently shot somewhere deep in the heart of the country, Walla’s Amir Bohbot writes that it may have been just an errant rocket aiming at Israeli missiles, or maybe not.
• “According to statements from senior Syrian officials, once US troops pull out, the Assad regime is expected to become much more aggressive and will act against threats to its sovereignty,” he writes. “[The rocket] could have been an attack to hit a target in Israel and signal that the Assad regime is losing patience.”
• Then again, Syrian air defense missiles are not exactly known for their accuracy.

This video is a great representation of the whole Syrian Air Defense… https://t.co/6cBDYrhcZu

— Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) December 25, 2018

3. Northern exposure: Could the attack also be signaling something to Israelis, who will be tasked with going to the polls in a few months? There’s no indication Defense Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had electoral politics in mind, but with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu known for running on a Mr. Security platform, it’s hard not to view a whole lot through that lens.

• That was the case as Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu joined other ministers in touring the anti-tunnel operation on the northern border Tuesday, declaring that the mission was nearly done.
• Ynet takes viewing the trip through election goggles to the extreme, by looking at who was photographed next to Netanyahu in the official record (Likud ministers) and who was not (Moshe Kahlon, Naftali Bennett, Aryeh Deri).
• The paper notes that one “star” of the photo op not from Likud was Housing Minister Yaov Gallant, who is reportedly planning to defect from Kulanu to Netanyahu’s party.

4. Settlement stuffers: Even more clear-cut as having to do with elections are almost over 1,700 settlement housing permits moving their way through the approval process suddenly.

• ToI’s Jacob Magid notes that the largest chunk of approvals came through on Tuesday, when most Western governments who could potentially criticize Israel over the move were busy sipping hot cocoa, opening Christmas presents and listening to Mariah Carey.
• On Wednesday, Netanyahu met with settlement leaders, telling them that they better vote for him, or the left could take power and kick them out of their homes.

Meeting with settler leaders, @netanyahu reveals one campaign message: "The left is trying to take control of the governmental by mobilizing the media & other institutions. They must not succeed – if, God forbid, they do, there will be a clear danger to the settlement project"

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— Raoul Wootliff (@RaoulWootliff) December 26, 2018

• Specifically Netanyahu used the words mahapach shiltoni, which directly translates to overturning of the regime, though a more nuanced translation might be “ouster.”
• The comment — which riffs off opposition leader Tzipi Livni’s promise of a “revolution” (mahapach), which itself riffs off a famous TV announcement of a “revolution” when Likud’s Menachem Begin won the 1977 election after decades of Labor power — raises eyebrows.
• “The left is trying an ouster? In a democratic election? Is there something traitorous about that?” Haaretz’s Chemi Shalev asks on Twitter.
• Netanyahu’s comment about how hard he has hard to work in dealing with the White House is also interpreted by some as a slight toward US President Donald Trump.

#Breaking: Benjamin Netanyahu is running against the media, Naftali Bennett AND Donald J. Trump, in that order, for reelection. In his fervid understanding, the judiciary is part of the media’s leftist networks. https://t.co/WPHXSGUViA

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) December 26, 2018

5. Poll position: Netanyahu is also running against polls that show him cruising to an easy victory, which can lead to complacency among supporters.

• A bevy of polls Tuesday, all of which should be regarded with suspicion, showed Netanyahu cruising to a win, unless former IDF chief Benny Gantz teams up with Zionist Union or Yesh Atid.
• According to Channel 10 news, Zionist Union head Avi Gabbay went as far as offering Gantz his job, but was turned down, which could mean something larger is brewing.
• Gantz has yet to say if he’ll run in his own party, if he’ll run at all, or even what his political position is.
• “The lack of serious leadership has made it very difficult for the left to succeed at the polls,” columnist Haim Shine from pro-Netanyahu Israel Hayom writes. “Avi Gabbay and Tzipi Livni, apart or together, won’t convince Israelis of their ability to deal with the challenges of this era. You can see the result in every poll. The left’s situation is so bad and problematic that its supporters are ready to vote for a man whose positions nobody knows, right, left, or just whatever.”

6. Question mark: Gantz’s lack of known political positions has become something of a running joke among in the Israeli press.

• Thus after Orly Levy-Abekasis reveals her exclamation point insignia for her new party (also inviting derision) someone else made one up for Gantz — a question mark.

https://twitter.com/AmirShperling/status/1077625044686303232

• Levy-Abekasis later revealed her party would be called Gesher (Hebrew for bridge), which also happened to be the name of a party run by her father David Levy way back when.

7. An indictment, and a way out? With the left seemingly in disarray, Netanyahu’s biggest challenger is likely attorney general Avichai Mandelblit, who can hurt Likud’s chances by publishing plans to indict the prime minister before the elections.

• Prof. Mordechai Kremnitzer, one of the leading Israeli authorities on criminal and constitutional law, tells ToI’s David Horovitz that an indictment seems inevitable.
• “There’s something not reasonable about overseeing an investigation into a serving prime minister, for years, when the prime minister says there’s nothing here, and ultimately saying, No, there’s nothing. That would say something very bad about this whole hierarchy.”
• But Kreminitzer also points to a way Netanyahu could still get out of it, assuming he wins re-election with enough support: the Knesset could vote to give him immunity if it thinks the attorney general acted in bad faith, though he admits its sneaky, terrible and a long-shot.
• “I don’t believe such a move would succeed, but it is a possible move,” he says. “To say that the attorney general acted in bad faith is the same as firing him. But given the current Knesset, with Netanyahu, perhaps it is not beyond all possibility.”