Erdogan's AKP set to win in critical Turkey vote

With a 50.6% majority, president’s party poised to secure parliamentary majority, reports indicate

ANKARA (AFP) — Turkey’s long-dominant Justice and Development Party (AKP) was on track for a parliamentary majority on Sunday, according to first results from one of the country’s most critical elections in years.

The AKP, founded by strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, gained 50.6 percent of the vote with more than 80 percent of ballots counted, according to CNN-Turk television. That is equal to 325 seats in parliament — well over the 276 seats needed for a one-party rule.

Opinion polls had predicted a replay of the June election when the AKP won just 40 percent of the vote, finding itself stripped of its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years.

Turks voted in large numbers, with the country deeply polarized in the face of surging Kurdish and Islamic violence and mounting concerns about democracy and the faltering economy.

“Whatever scenario materializes, the challenges facing Turkey are growing by the day,” said a report by the Brookings Institution think-tank.

It highlighted the problems of the Kurdish crisis, the parlous state of the economy and the conflict in neighboring Syria.

The political landscape has changed dramatically in Turkey since June, with the country even more divided on ethnic and sectarian lines.

Security concerns

Many Turks are fearful of a return to all-out war with outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) rebels after fresh violence shattered a 2013 truce in July, just a month after a pro-Kurdish party won seats in parliament for the first time and denied Erdogan’s AKP a majority.

The threat of further jihadist violence also overshadowed the poll after a string of attacks blamed on the Islamic State group, including twin suicide bombings on an Ankara peace rally last month that killed 102 people — the bloodiest in Turkey’s modern history.

Electoral officials count ballots during a count of votes for Turkish legislative elections at a polling station in Istanbul on November 1, 2015. (AFP PHOTO / YASIN AKGUL)

Around 385,000 police and gendarmes were mobilized nationwide, with security particularly high in the restive Kurdish-majority southeast, where armored vehicles and police were seen outside polling stations.

There were no major incidents although media reports said police fired tear gas on rivals from the AKP and the pro-Kurdish People’s Republican Party (HDP) brawling in a town near Istanbul.

Fifty-four million people were registered to vote, and there were queues at many polling stations visited by AFP.

Turkey’s ‘big master’

The outcome is likely to determine the future of Erdogan — the divisive “big master” who has dominated Turkey’s political scene for more than a decade but is seen as increasingly autocratic.

The June result stymied his ambition to expand his role into a powerful US-style executive presidency that opponents fear would mean fewer checks and balances in what was once regarded as a model Muslim democracy.

He had vowed to respect Sunday’s result, saying: “Turkey has made great strides on the path to democracy and that will be bolstered once more in today’s election.”

However, a string of high-profile raids against media groups deemed hostile to Erdogan and the jailing of critical journalists have set alarm bells ringing about the state of democracy in a country that has long aspired to join the European Union (EU).

“We need a change of direction so we can breathe again. Turkey has become ungovernable,” said Ibrahim Yener, 34, as he cast his ballot in Ankara.

Economic jitters

Turkey is also struggling with its policy on neighboring Syria which has left it at odds with its NATO allies, and the burden of more than two million people who have taken refuge from a war well into its fifth year.

After long supporting rebels fighting the Damascus regime, Ankara was cajoled into joining the US-led coalition against the IS group and launched its own “war on terrorism” targeting the jihadists as well as PKK fighters.

Members of a Police forensic team gather evidence at the site of twin explosions at the main train station in Turkey's capital Ankara, on October 10, 2015. (AFP/ADEM ALTAN) — Members of a Police forensic team gather evidence at the site of twin explosions at the main train station in Turkey’s capital Ankara, on October 10, 2015. (AFP/ADEM ALTAN)

Turkey’s economy is also in trouble, with growth slowing sharply from the dizzy heights of five years ago, unemployment rising and the Turkish lira plunging more than 25 percent in value this year.

All eyes were on the performance of the HDP, which made history in June with its election breakthrough.

But it faces accusations of being a front for the PKK, whose armed campaign for autonomy has led to the deaths of 45,000 people since 1984.

“I hope the outcome of today’s election will raise hopes for peace. This is what Turkey needs the most right now. It’s in our people’s power to change our future, to have a stronger democracy,” said charismatic HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas.