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Poll shows Netanyahu’s Likud surging but still unable to form coalition

A Channel 13 survey shows that if national elections were held today, opposition chief Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would surge, but still likely be unable to form a governing coalition.

The poll also finds that Merav Michaeli’s Labor party would significantly increase its power and that Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope would fail to pass the electoral threshold.

Elections are not currently planned, but could be triggered if the government fails to pass the state budget by November 14.

According to the poll, Likud would get 36 seats, Yesh Atid 20, Labor 10, Joint List 8, Blue and White 7, Shas 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Yamina 6, Religious Zionism 6, Meretz 5, Yisrael Beytenu 4, Ra’am 4, and New Hope 0 (2.6 percent of votes, below the 3.25% threshold).

Current coalition parties would get 56 seats — down from their current 61, the smallest parliamentary majority possible — while right-wing and Haredi parties supporting Netanyahu would also get 56 seats. The predominantly Arab Joint List would hold the balance of power.

The poll was conducted by pollster Camil Fuchs with a 3.8% margin of error.

In addition, the survey finds 51% want the current coalition to continue, 40% want elections now, and 9% do not know.

It finds 63% of the public do not want the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) parties to join the government after the budget passes, while 20% do.

However, among UTJ and Shas voters, 48% do want them to join and just 34% do not.

Asked whether Prime Minister Naftali Bennett should not honor his power-sharing deal that states Yair Lapid will become premier in August 2023, 62% say he should, 23% say he should break up the government in 2023, and 15% don’t know.

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