Inside story

Netanyahu’s offer to Lapid and Gantz: Early elections in a year’s time

PM wants opposition leaders to back his government through the hostages’ release, in exchange for holding early elections one year after the last captive returns

Shalom Yerushalmi

Shalom Yerushalmi is the political analyst for Zman Israel, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew current affairs website

Head of the National Unity party Benny Gantz and head of Yesh Atid party Yair Lapid in a joint press conference at the Knesset. 6 November 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
Head of the National Unity party Benny Gantz and head of Yesh Atid party Yair Lapid in a joint press conference at the Knesset. 6 November 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is offering MKs Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz a deal that would have the the two opposition leaders provide his government with a “safety net” to complete the hostage deal even if Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and his far-right allies will leave the government, The Times of Israel has learned. In exchange, Netanyahu, Lapid and Gantz would agree to hold early elections one year after the day of the last hostage’s return, sometime around April 2026.

In recent weeks, alongside the dramatic daily events surrounding the return of hostages, Netanyahu and his team have grown concerned that the agreement with Hamas might not be completed because Smotrich indeed intends to bring down the government if Israel proceeds with the second phase of the deal.

A total of 33 Israeli hostages are set to be released in the first phase, which began two weeks ago. Ten Israeli hostages have been freed so far, along with five Thai nationals who were not among the 33, with three more Israelis set to be released on Saturday. Israel and Hamas have agreed to begin negotiations on a second phase that would see the remaining hostages — men under age 50 and male soldiers — returned to Israel.

Lapid and Gantz have already offered Netanyahu a safety net, but only until the deal is completed. Netanyahu does not trust this political arrangement. In discussions at his office, Netanyahu has argued that the two would oust him immediately after all the hostages return, together with right-wing opposition members. “It’s a trick,” Netanyahu has said in internal discussions. Instead, he is only willing to make a deal if it guarantees him another year in office.

At the top levels of government, no one really knows how things will unfold in the coming days and weeks, or where negotiations with Hamas will lead. Two unpredictable players are in the mix: US President Donald Trump and Smotrich, who believes finalizing the Hamas agreement would amount to a national disaster.

Next week, Netanyahu will meet with Trump at the White House and try to secure maximum maneuvering room, including the option to resume the war if Hamas continues to hold power in Gaza. If Trump insists on seeing through the ceasefire-hostage release deal, which provides for a permanent truce, the challenge will be to face Smotrich.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attend a vote in the Knesset plenum, Jerusalem, December 31, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

Netanyahu spent long hours this week talking with the head of the Religious Zionism party and has apparently concluded that Smotrich is unwilling to budge on his stance that the war should continue and that, like other right-wing leaders before him, he is even willing to bring down a right-wing government and risk his entire political future.

This week, Smotrich himself said that strategic advantages are of no interest to him in exchange for stopping the war — not even addressing Iran’s nuclear program or achieving peace with Saudi Arabia.

Netanyahu’s proposal to Lapid and Gantz is intended to prevent the government’s collapse with the opposition’s help. Together, Lapid and Gantz control 31 Knesset seats, and elections cannot be brought forward if they oppose it. A law to advance the elections requires three readings and the support of 61 of the 120 MKs.

Under Netanyahu’s proposal, Lapid and Gantz would not be obligated to vote in favor of coalition legislation — and since this would be a minority government, it is unclear how many laws Netanyahu, the ultra-Orthodox, or other parties could pass.

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, right, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands during a plenum session in the Knesset, October 16, 2023. (Noam Revkin Fenton/Flash90)

However, Lapid and Gantz would likely be required to support the state budget bill — if the government fails to approve a budget by late March, the Knesset would dissolve automatically — and that demand already seems like a stretch.

If Lapid and Gantz provide him with such a safety net and elections are held in mid-2026, this would be an acceptable advancement of the elections for Netanyahu, as they are currently scheduled for October 2026.

Asked about this proposal, Lapid told The Times of Israel: “I’m not conducting media negotiations with Netanyahu. If he wants to use us as a safety net for the hostage deal, we can finalize it behind closed doors within an hour.”

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