Trump’s return creates opportunity to remove Iran threat, says blue-ribbon committee
Panel appointed by Netanyahu to examine future defense budget calls for focus on Tehran’s weaponization efforts, says all Israelis must serve equally
Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter
The election of Donald Trump as US president offers an unprecedented opportunity to remove the threat Israel faces from Iran, according to a committee appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to examine defense spending and IDF military force design for the future.
Trump’s return to the White House, said the Nagel Committee on Monday, “creates, for the first time, the potential for a fundamental change, and the removal or meaningful reduction of the Iranian threat.”
Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for January 20. He is expected to return to a version of the “maximum pressure” campaign that he pursued in his first term to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear program.
The release of the committee’s findings came the same day as an Axios report that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer had come out of a November meeting with Trump thinking that the US president-elect would back an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities or even order a US attack.
The committee, chaired by Brigadier General (Res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel and comprising representatives of the Prime Minister’s Office, Finance Ministry, Defense Ministry and IDF, is tasked with determining the direction of Israel’s military force design for the next decade, the budgetary implications, and the economic impact.
It presented its findings to Israeli journalists on Monday afternoon, and to Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich later in the day.
There is concern that Iran could move toward pursuing a nuclear weapon as it is increasingly pushed into the corner following a series of devastating blows, coupled with the looming inauguration of Trump.
Speculation has also arisen that Israel may strike Iran in response to recurring ballistic missile attacks launched against Israel by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who receive arms and other support from the Islamic Republic.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran was prepared for any future Israeli attacks and warned that such action could spark a wider conflagration.
The Nagel Committee report said that Iran’s nuclear program is “a critical threat that must be thwarted, at any price and in any way, direct or indirect.”
It said that until now, the diplomatic and operational circumstances did not exist for the program to be taken out, only slowed down.
Iran’s strategic goal, claimed the report, was to “bring about the conventional destruction of Israel, directly and through proxies, under a nuclear umbrella.”
The report outlined four areas in which Israel should focus its efforts against Iran. The most important, it says, is its ability to weaponize.
Nagel explained to reporters that efforts to prevent countries from enriching uranium have failed in the past.
Israel should also work to weaken the Iranian regime, strike enrichment efforts, and target its ballistic missile program, said Nagel.
As a committee tasked with budgetary recommendations, the Nagel panel examined the economy and the implications for Israel’s ability to build and maintain an effective military. In general, it pointed at positive signs for the economy, and a recovery as combat winds down in Lebanon and potentially in Gaza.
“October 7 did not take place because of a lack of budget, or because of the size of the army,” the report declared.
Instead, the war made clear that there are gaps in readiness and capabilities that can no longer be ignored, said the committee.
The report obliquely criticized previous security concepts that sought to buy long periods of quiet through deterrence and economic incentives. “Preventing enemy build-up, in all its forms, is more important than extended quiet,” it said.
“Israel’s response to attempts to harm it must be continuous and sometimes even disproportionate.”
The committee recommended significant additions to the defense budget for the next decade in human capital, the Iranian threat, missile defense, border security, ground forces, domestic munitions production and independence, cyberwarfare, and intelligence.
It called for an NIS 9 billion increase for 2025, and then NIS 15 billion more than that for each year through 2030, after which time the yearly budget would shrink by NIS 3 billion. Taxes should not be raised to fund the rise in the defense budget, said the committee, instead relying heavily on anticipated economic growth.
Though it was not asked to comment on the issue, the Nagel Committee called for “equal mandatory service for all its citizens,” saying it should be implemented “gradually, according to the IDF’s ability to conscript and its needs.”
It did not mention the ultra-Orthodox or Arab communities, both of which generally do not face mandatory military service, by name.
Turning to the political leadership, the committee said that Israel’s elected officials do not sufficiently influence the security services: “When it happens, it is forced on very limited areas, on topics agreed upon ahead of time, and at late stages when the influence is already minor.”
It proposed a yearly schedule for the security services to present work plans and assessments to the cabinet to ensure elected officials have a greater say and can challenge assumptions.
On domestic weapons production, the committee warned that in future conflicts, “there is a danger that we will not be able to purchase [critical munitions] even from friendly countries when we want to.”
Over the course of the war in Gaza, Canada, France, the UK, and other European countries imposed partial suspensions of arms deliveries, and some leaders even called for blanket bans.
Even close allies like Germany and the US were accused of slowing weapons shipments.
Independent domestic production, said the report, “will grant Israel deep and protected political freedom of action, and will broadcast strength and resilience.”
The committee called for investment and new units in a range of cutting-edge fields, including AI, combat in space, hypersonic missiles, autonomous platforms, and High-Power Electromagnetic Microwave capabilities.
During its work, the committee held discussions with the Defense Ministry Budget Division, the accountant general, the Bank of Israel, the Finance Ministry, and members of the defense establishment.
In May, following an extended fight with the defense establishment, Smotrich announced that he had reached an agreement with then-defense minister Yoav Gallant to establish the committee.
