With all eyes on Gaza, Hamas might send the West Bank up in flames
The terror group’s popularity jumps as Palestinians lose confidence in Abbas, while IDF operations have killed hundreds and settler violence is at a high. Something has got to give
Executive Director ROPES (Regional Organization For Peace, Economics & Security); Senior non-resident fellow Atlantic Council; former member of Knesset (Hatnua)
Throughout the weeklong truce between Israel and Hamas that ended Friday, jubilant Palestinian crowds gathered near Ofer military prison to greet the female and teenage security prisoners who were released daily as part of a hostage deal.
Many waved the green flags of Hamas, while the ex-prisoners — even those affiliated with other Palestinian factions — thanked Hamas military commander Muhammad Deif and political leader Yahya Sinwar. Palestinian Authority officials were nowhere in sight — they were not welcome in the sea of green.
Even before the current conflict — which began on October 7 when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping another 240 to the Gaza Strip — Israel held thousands of Palestinian security prisoners. As of October 17, Israel said it was holding another 118 “unlawful combatants” captured on and after the October 7 atrocities. More recent figures have not been released.
The prisoners issue has long been top of mind for Palestinians — and it’s clear that Hamas has gained valuable political leverage by securing the release of 240 prisoners in the hostage deal.
Combined with the October 7 massacre, which is perceived by many Palestinians as an important military achievement and which reignited the world’s interest in the Palestinian cause (even at the cost of a humanitarian disaster in Gaza), it’s easy to understand why Hamas now enjoys unprecedented support in the West Bank.
According to an Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) poll, Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, saw an unbelievable 89% increase in public support since the outbreak of the war. Its spokesman, Abu Obeida, was turned into a hero for many young people in 2021 during Operation Guardian of the Walls.
Hamas popularity surges
Hamas — and especially its military wing — enjoys a surge in popularity while the Palestinian Authority is suffering immense damage to its reputation on the Palestinian street.
Although PA President Mahmoud Abbas is criticized in Israel for his refusal to loudly condemn the October 7 Hamas atrocities, in the West Bank he is being accused by his many enemies — Hamas first among them — of being a traitor and a collaborator with Israel. Just late last month, armed Palestinians killed two alleged informants for Israel in the West Bank city of Tulkarem and an angry mob reportedly dragged and stomped on their corpses in the street. It is not clear where Palestinian security forces were during the events.
The execution was a clear sign of shifting power dynamics in the West Bank and a frightening message to Ramallah. Hamas, meanwhile, is not circumspect about its goals. When the terror group mobilized crowds on the night of October 19 after a blast at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital — apparently due to an errant Palestinian Islamic Jihad projectile — it demanded not only victory over Israel, but the dismantling of Abbas’s regime.
Unlike his predecessor Yasser Arafat, Abbas has eschewed violence against Israel. But his diplomacy has yielded little in terms of Palestinian independence, making him an easy target for his violent opponents in Hamas.
Fuel on the fire: Terror attacks and settler violence
During his meeting with Israeli leaders on November 30, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken again stressed the need for Israel to immediately hold extreme Israeli settlers accountable for violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.
Despite being underreported in Israel, violent attacks by extremist settlers are widespread, and a familiar phenomenon to many Palestinians. In the past, they have resulted in burned property and physical altercations. They have only increased in intensity since the start of the current conflict, with Palestinians reporting cases of abuse and murder, amid claims that the IDF does little to protect them from settler extremists.
Meanwhile, settlers have protested outside the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, claiming their lives are endangered due to insufficient Israeli response to deadly terror attacks in the West Bank.
Since the October 7 onslaught, the IDF is aggressively operating in Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarem and other West Bank towns and cities to thwart planned terror attacks, eliminate underground tunnels and confiscate deadly weapons.
According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, 225 Palestinians have been killed in these operations and clashes with the IDF, and in a few cases at the hands of violent settlers. Among the dead are numerous Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihan terrorists, but also 50 children and teenagers.
This past week, two boys, Ahmed al-Ghoul and Basel Abu al-Wafa, aged 8 and 15, were killed in the Jenin refugee camp during an exchange of fire between the IDF and Palestinian gunmen.
The tense calm that prevailed during the first week of the Gaza conflict is clearly over. The combination of an emboldened Hamas, Israeli military raids, settler violence, a deterioration of economic conditions, incitement and pure desperation might plunge the West Bank back into the abyss.
In this case, Israel might find itself militarily engaged on yet another front and, as in Gaza, without any reasonable Palestinian partner to engage with.
For years, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government had weakened the PA in the West Bank and allowed Hamas to become strengthened in Gaza. Today, this failed policy is bearing some poisonous fruit: Hamas might be defeated in Gaza, but ignite an intifada in the West Bank and oust the more moderate regime of Mahmoud Abbas.
The writer, a former Member of Knesset, is a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council and executive director of ROPES.
