58 is the new 60 (which is the new 61): Six things to know for March 4

1. Win with an asterisk (again): Shockingly, media pronouncements of a resounding Likud and right-wing victory in Monday’s elections appear to have been premature, and overreactions by pundits and others appear to have been just that. Somehow, the sides appear to be stuck exactly where they were after the previous election, and after the election before that.

• By Wednesday morning, with only a few votes left to count, the presumed right-religious bloc is stuck at 58 seats, with 55 seats for the left-Arab bloc.
• “The Central Elections Committee estimates that the last votes won’t change the blocs,” reports Channel 12 news, though it would be extremely strange for the technocrats tasked with counting the votes to publicly prejudge an outcome like that.
• Suddenly gone are those pronouncements of “victory,” and “the people had their say,” and “unmistakable result,” replaced by headlines like “win without a victory” (Yedioth Ahronoth) and “wait for the final results” (Israel Hayom).
• In fact some news sites aren’t even blasting the elections as their top stories anymore, overtaken again by the coronavirus and the news that someone with the pathogen was at a Tel Aviv soccer match, meaning everyone in his section needs to hole up for two weeks.
• Not making major news, somehow, is the fact that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with a general who returned from Italy and is now being forced into quarantine (the general, not Netanyahu, yet).

2. Full metal ballot: Channel 13 reports that the CEC is actually being super careful to get it right and will only publish the final (unofficial) results in the late afternoon, and that the current reported vote counts do not include soldiers who voted on base.

• In Haaretz, Yossi Verter sticks stubbornly to the idea that the right-religious bloc will end with 60 seats, going off possibly outdated numbers and an assumption that it will benefit from the yet-to-be-counted soldiers’ votes.
• “Politicians and pundits widely believe that when the final results are in, the right-wing bloc will grow to 60 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, because the Joint List of Arab parties, which is currently at 15 seats, doesn’t stand to benefit from soldiers’ votes – most of the ballots cast in double-sealed envelopes.” he claims.
• But Ynet reports that last time around the soldiers’ votes actually helped Blue and White the most, with more modest gains for Yamina and Likud.

3. Wow oww oww: Pundits may have changed their tune, but don’t expect to see much hand-wringing from those who proclaimed Netanyahu’s victory last April, and his impending demise in September, and who seem immune to learning anything.

• That includes Channel 12 correspondent Amit Segal, who had been among those to proclaim victory for Netanyahu (and is being mocked for tweeting “Wow wow wow” over results that changed almost nothing), and who keeps trundling along on Twitter with his scenarios and declarations, now suddenly in favor of a unity government.
• “The joy that has turned into despair should be seen as a message from the cosmos: Idiots, are you really going to form a government based on one MK. Make unity already.” (He also continues to term the Joint List “terror supporters” who should have no part in government, which alone should disqualify him from ever covering politics for a supposedly mainstream outlet, but I digress, kind of).
• In Ynet, Moran Azoulay decries the fact that Likud is “trying to push a narrative of victory, even though there was nothing decisive,” which is rich considering her newspaper published a front page on Tuesday with a single word: “Victory.”
• How not-decisive? She reports that President Reuven Rivlin is considering skipping giving anyone the mandate to form a government, and opening the job up to any Knesset member.

4. Premature exaltation: Where would Likud have gotten this idea of victory from? An excellent run-down by Kan’s Guy Zohar goes through all the pundits and others who fell over themselves to declare Netanyahu the big winner. (It’s worth a look, if you understand Hebrew).

• “In the last two elections we learned that a victory is ‘creating a government,’ so Netanyahu’s goal to winning a creating a government was 61 seats. Or so it seems. Because the moment the exit polls were released showing that Netanyahu had 60 seats, and even that’s not final, in the studios they declared ‘Netanyahu is the winner,’” he says.
• And even in Israel Hayom, which is seen as solidly pro-Netanyahu and then some, columnist Yossi Beilin chides the media.
• “In recent years, the declarations of victory following the release of exit polls have practically become a predictable spectacle, even though time after time, those who were quick to declare victory end the week with the final results which do not give them what they had hoped for,” he writes.
• In the 7th eye media watchdog, Shuki Tassayeg marvels over Yedioth’s “victory” front page from Tuesday, especially given the fact that publisher Arnon Mozes is facing trial for trying to reach a quid pro quo with Netanyahu.
• “Surely Sara Netanyahu will want to have it as a keepsake,” he writes, noting that it went even further than Israel Hayom.

5. Looking for Benedict Arnold: Some are still pushing the idea that Netanyahu’s victory is only a few deserters away, if even that.

• “We’ll find the MKs that will ensure a government,” reads the front page headline in Israel Hayom.
• “The perception of victory is not created in a vacuum. Netanyahu did win. Likud’s achievement in the March 2 vote is its greatest ever – nearing that of former Likud leader Ariel Sharon, who led the Likud in 2003 to 38 mandates,” writes the paper’s Mati Tuchfeld.
• He claims that Blue and White won’t be too tough to crack open. “The connection between the Israel Resilience, Yesh Atid and Telem parties is loose, at best.”
• Haaretz reports that Likud is hoping for a few deserters, or Gantz’s whole Israel Resilience faction will come aboard. “Several lawmakers, including some not associated with right-wing positions, received offers from Likud to try to get them to defect, but that none have agreed,” he writes (though the paper’s Verter claims that such talk is just spin and no actual contacts are taking place.)
• “Likud is shooting in all directions,” a Blue and White source is quoted telling the paper. “They already approached some lawmakers of ours in an attempt to convince them to defect – including those who, based on their positions, it’s clear that there is no chance they will defect.”
• Channel 13 news reports that Labor and Gesher are considering doing so to spite Blue and White for what it says is a racist campaign against them that compared Amir Peretz to Rafi Peretz or Orly Levy-Abekasis to Miri Regev.

6. Look who’s on their back heels now: Most punditry assumes that Netanyahu will be helped by the fact that Blue and White or potential deserters are scared of fourth elections.

• But new legislation being proposed which would forbid a prime minister from serving while on trial has Likud now thinking of giving in and going for unity, reports Walla news.
• “If the law moves forward, it will create pressure on the right and in Likud to switch out Netanyahu to create a unity government of Likud and Blue and White without Netanyahu.”
• Channel 13 news reports that Netanyahu plans on convening his own bloc for an urgent meeting in the wake of the news.
• The channel also notes that to pass the law, a government will need to be formed, and so those in support will need to rally around Benny Gantz and recommend him as premier, seemingly even if they don’t like all their partners.
• But Globes reporter Tal Schneider reminds readers that Netanyahu backers didn’t need to wait for a government to pass a law in 2015 that expanded the number of ministers allowed.
• Shas head Aryeh Deri tells Kan that “the idea of passing a private member law to keep Netanyahu from taking office, after the people had their say, is shameful and a breaking of the rules of the political game.” (Others have noted that more people voted for parties that don’t back Netanyahu than those that did, the equivalent of the non-existent popular vote.)
• Haaretz’s Chaim Levinson writes on Twitter that though Netanyahu supporters are speaking out against the move, they may actually be secretly hopeful: “Once it passes, if it passes, they will either 1. Raises their glasses to toast that Netanyahu is finally gone and they can be free from captivity, or 2. They won’t even recognize him on the street.”