IAF: Some fighter jets could be downed in war with Hezbollah

IAF issues footage of strike on Houthi-controlled port, says it’s girding for reprisal

Dozens of jets hit fuel depots, cranes used to unload shipments * Probe finds deadly Houthi drone flew 2,600 km to hit Tel Aviv; in vital minutes, radar operators were tracking UAV from Iraq

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian is The Times of Israel's military correspondent

A man walks near to a raging fire at oil storage tanks a day after Israeli strikes on Yemen's Houthi-held Hodeida port on July 21, 2024. (AFP)
A man walks near to a raging fire at oil storage tanks a day after Israeli strikes on Yemen's Houthi-held Hodeida port on July 21, 2024. (AFP)

The Israeli Air Force on Sunday released footage showing its airstrikes a day earlier against the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeida in western Yemen, which came following a deadly drone attack on Tel Aviv Thursday overnight carried out by the Iran-backed group.

The video showed missiles launched by IAF fighter jets striking four large container cranes at the port used to unload shipments.

The IAF also released footage showing fighter jets being refueled amid the operation, dubbed “Outstretched Arm,” as well as the arrival of some of the aircraft back at Israeli airbases following the strike.

The strike, carried out by dozens of Israeli aircraft, targeted fuel depots and energy infrastructure at the port, in addition to the cranes.

The Israeli strike group included F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets, reconnaissance aircraft, and refueling planes — the latter of which was due to the target being some 1,800 kilometers (1,100 miles) from Israel, making it one of the farthest-ever actions carried out by the IAF.

According to the military, the strike on the fuel depot was a major blow to the Houthi economy, and the cranes being taken out of service prevents the group from bringing in more Iranian weapons via the port that have been used to target Israel, along with commercial and military ships in the Red Sea.

Saturday’s strike on Hodeida Port used more force than the IAF needed, aimed at sending a message of deterrence as well as causing financial damage to the Iran-backed group and impeding its ability to import weapons.

Strikes carried out by an American-led coalition in Yemen have only targeted Houthi military infrastructure, and not sites that are also used by civilians, such as the Hodeida Port, which is also used to bring in humanitarian aid to the war-torn country in addition to the Iranian weapon shipments.

The IAF believed that the strike would project a message to Israel’s enemies, especially Lebanon’s Hezbollah, that Israel is capable and willing to target dual-use civilian-military infrastructure, and carry out what could be considered disproportionate responses to attacks.

This handout satellite image released by Maxar Technologies shows a view of burning oil tanks in the port of Yemen’s Houthi-held city of Hodeida on July 21, 2024, a day after Israeli strikes. (Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies / AFP)

Anticipating a response

Meanwhile, the IAF was on high alert for reprisals in response to the airstrike. The IAF has assessed that not only the Houthis would ramp up attacks following the strike in Yemen but other Iran-backed groups in the region as well, including those in Syria and Iraq, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Following Friday’s Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, which killed resident Yevgeny Ferder, 50, the IAF assessed that the Iran-backed group in Yemen would continue to carry out attacks on Israel regardless of an Israeli response.

According to the Israeli military, Yemen’s Houthis have in the past nine months fired over 220 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel, the latest on Sunday morning — mostly toward the southernmost city of Eilat — in solidarity with the Gaza Strip, where Israel is battling Hamas terrorists.

An Israeli firefighter investigates the scene of a deadly drone attack in Tel Aviv, July 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

The vast majority of the Iran-backed group’s projectiles have been intercepted by US forces stationed in the Red Sea and Israeli air defenses and fighter jets, or have missed their target. Before the attack on Tel Aviv early on Friday, only one Houthi projectile, a cruise missile, had successfully struck Israel, hitting an open area near Eilat in March.

Until Friday’s deadly attack in Tel Aviv, Israel chose not to respond to those attacks, preferring that a United States-led coalition continue to strike the Houthis, mostly in response to the Iran-backed group’s attacks on commercial and military ships in the Red Sea.

A handout picture obtained from Yemen’s Houthi Ansarullah Media Center show a huge column of fire erupting following strikes in the Yemeni rebel-held port city of Hodeida on July 20, 2024. (ANSARULLAH MEDIA CENTRE / AFP)

The military said Sunday there was no change to instructions for Israeli civilians, although it was anticipating a response by the Houthis.

Israel’s air defenses are not “hermetic,” military officials said, warning that there would likely be more successful drone attacks on the country, but adding that the IAF is doing everything to prevent them.

The IAF also said it was unfazed by the fact that social media clips had shown the Israeli fighter jets, refueler tankers, and spy planes as they headed toward Yemen in the afternoon hours of Saturday — which may have given the Houthis an early warning that an attack was coming.

IAF officials viewed the social media footage, as well as the fact that the strike was carried out in broad daylight, as a form of deterrence against Israel’s enemies.

Israel acted alone in the strike with no American military involvement.

An Israeli military official said US Central Command had been updated ahead of the attack, and in turn updated its allies in the region.

Houthi drone flew 2,600 kilometers to reach Tel Aviv

The Iranian-made drone launched by the Houthis at Tel Aviv early Friday morning traveled more than 2,600 kilometers (1,600 miles) to reach Israel, according to an Israeli Air Force probe.

The modified Iranian-made Samad-3 took a non-direct flight path. This may have contributed to it not being classified as a threat by air defense troops, which resulted in it not being intercepted and striking a residential building in Tel Aviv.

According to the IAF investigation, the explosive-laden drone apparently flew west from Yemen over the Red Sea, reaching Eritrea, before then flying north over Sudan and Egypt and reaching the Mediterranean Sea. The drone then turned to approach Tel Aviv from the west.

It was only at this point that the drone showed up on Israeli radar, as an unidentified target. The army can now say the drone was tracked for six minutes while it approached Tel Aviv from the direction of the sea, before dropping in and out of radar for several minutes after that, according to the probe.

The drone, according to the probe, was in the air for some 16 hours, flying at a speed of between 80 and 100 knots, or 148-185 kilometers per hour.

This illustration shows the approximate journey a Houthi drone made between July 18 and July 19 in an attack on Tel Aviv. (Open Street Map; Times of Israel)

The IAF was aware of such capabilities in the hands of the Houthis, but had no specific prior information on the attack itself.

More radar operators after failure to recognize threat

The probe found that if the target had been classified as a suspected drone when it was first identified, the IAF would have had enough time to engage it, using fighter jets or ground or sea-based air defense systems. Instead, the target was not classified as a threat due to a human error by the air defense soldiers, and it impacted Tel Aviv.

Human operators who analyze the IAF’s radar were at the time focused on tracking a drone launched by another Iran-backed group, from Iraq. That drone was shot down by fighter jets. The IAF has explained that the operators also frequently see targets drop in and out of radar, which in some cases are birds or distortions caused by clouds. Additionally, the IAF’s focus had been on targets approaching Israel from the north, east, and south, and less so from the west.

People look at building hit by a drone in a deadly June 18 attack, in Tel Aviv on July 19, 2024. (Jamal Awad/Flash90)

Following the attack, the IAF doubled the number of operators analyzing radar systems so that targets are not missed and are correctly classified. It has also increased aerial patrols, especially in the Mediterranean, to better detect incoming threats.

Fighter jets face threat in an all-out war with Hezbollah

Separately, assessments described to The Times of Israel on Sunday showed that in the event of an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force would need to take risks to combat Hezbollah’s air defenses.

The IAF has assessed that some fighter jets may be shot down, and risks will need to be taken to obtain aerial superiority during the first days of a major conflict.

So far, amid ongoing skirmishes along the border, Hezbollah has shot down at least five Israeli drones, and in one case, fired missiles at Israeli jets without success.

The IAF has knowledge of the Iranian-made anti-aircraft systems that Hezbollah possesses, and has repeatedly made efforts to target them amid the ongoing fighting.

Illustrative: A picture taken from Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel shows an Israeli fighter jet firing a flare over southern Lebanon on May 16, 2024. (Menahem Kahana/AFP)

Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.

Other Iran-backed groups, in Iraq and Syria, have also claimed to have launched dozens of drones and cruise missiles at Israel during the ongoing war sparked by Hamas’s devastating October 7 terror onslaught.

Iran itself also carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel in April with hundreds of drones and missiles, almost all of which were intercepted.

The Israeli military has detailed plans ready for the event of an escalation with Hezbollah, although Israel’s political leadership has not yet made a decision on launching a major offensive in Lebanon. Regardless, the IAF has said it maintains readiness in the event of a sudden escalation as a result of Hezbollah’s actions.

Most Popular
read more: