From the Liveblog of
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Party led by Bennett would overtake Likud in elections, could easily form coalition – poll
If former prime minister Naftali Bennett makes a political comeback, his party would be the largest in the Knesset and would have multiple options for forming a majority coalition, according to a television news poll released this evening.
The Channel 12 News survey finds that a party led by Bennett would get 21 seats if elections were held today, compared to 19 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud (which currently holds 32). Opposition parties National Unity and Yesh Atid would garner 13 and 11 seats respectively, and the newly formed left-wing Democrats party would also receive 11 seats.
The ultra-Orthodox Shas party would get 10 seats, and MK Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party would jump to 10 seats (up from six in the current Knesset). Ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism would get 8 seats, Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit 7, and the mainly Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would each get 5 seats.
Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope and the Arab party Balad would all fall below the Knesset threshold and thus get no seats.
In terms of the Knesset blocs, the current Netanyahu-led coalition (comprising Likud, Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism) would win just 44 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Today’s opposition parties, plus Bennett’s party, would win 71 seats in all, with Hadash-Ta’al, which would join neither bloc, holding the remaining 5.
The pro-Netanyahu bloc defeated the Bennett-helmed government in elections in November 2022, winning 64 seats. General elections are not due in Israel until October 2026.
The poll also finds that were Bennett and Liberman to run together as a united right-wing bloc — as they are rumored to be discussing — their joint faction would get 26 mandates, while Likud would get 20, National Union 15, and Yesh Atid 12.
In terms of the public’s preferred prime minister, only the former Yamina leader Bennett gets higher ratings than Netanyahu, with 39 percent of respondents saying Bennett is more suitable to lead the country compared to 31% for the incumbent.
Both National Unity chair Benny Gantz and Opposition Leader Yair Lapid are seen as less favorable as premier than Netanyahu, according to Channel 12. Netanyahu was preferred to Gantz by 32-30, and to Lapid by 35-27. A similar poll last month found Netanyahu leading over all three alternatives.
Were Bennett not to get back into politics, the poll finds that if elections were held today there would be a tie between Likud and National Unity, with each getting 22 seats in the Knesset. Netanyahu and Gantz’s parties would be followed by Yesh Atid at 15 seats and Yisrael Beytenu with 14. The Democrats would win 11, Shas 10, UTJ 8, Otzmah Yehudit 8, Hadash-Ta’al 5 and Ra’am 5. Finance Minister Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, Sa’ar’s new Hope and Balad would all get no seats.
In terms of the Knesset blocs, the current Netanyahu-led coalition would win 48 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Today’s opposition parties would win 67, with Hadash-Ta’al again holding the other 5.
