US threat assessment says Hamas not going away, but Netanyahu might be

An annual threat assessment published by Washington compiling US intelligence says Israel will be challenged by Hamas for years to come and warns continuing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and on Israel “create a real risk of broader escalation.”

“Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces,” the assessment reads.

The report, published as intelligence chiefs testify to the Senate about it, notes that the US believes “that Iranian leaders did not orchestrate nor had foreknowledge of the Hamas attack against Israel” on October 7, and finds that both Israel and Iran are attempting to avoid all out war, though conflict against Hezbollah could escalate.

“Hezbollah is calibrating this pressure on Israel from the north while trying to avoid a broader war that would devastate Hezbollah and Lebanon. Hezbollah’s leadership, though, probably will consider a range of retaliatory options depending on Israel’s actions in Lebanon during the upcoming year,” the report reads.

It also highlights domestic pressures faced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, predicting that his government’s viability “may be in jeopardy.”

“Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections. A different, more moderate government is a possibility,” the assessment reads.