Poll suggests possible 20 Knesset seats for retiring Likud minister in new party

A new, social-justice oriented political party headed by resigning Minister of Communications Moshe Kahlon (Likud) would gather 20 seats in the upcoming Knesset elections, an opinion poll published on Wednesday found.

Kahlon has discussed the possibility of setting up a new party, Channel 2 reported on Wednesday night, and is waiting for more in-depth polling information. He had not intended running against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and was quitting the government and taking a break from the Knesset because it was made clear to him that he would not be given a front-line ministerial position in the next government, Channel 2 said. Now that he’d seen such encouraging poll findings, however, he was thinking about establishing a new party.

Kahlon, 51, who also currently serves as Minister of Welfare and Social Services, unexpectedly announced two weeks ago that he would not run for a Knesset seat with the Likud in the January elections but said he would remain in the party, fueling speculation of a rift with party head Netanyahu.

When word of the poll began to leak on Tuesday night, Kahlon reportedly told associates that he had no intention of leaving the Likud, and stressed that he had commissioned no polling on his political future.

Netanyahu told reporters Wednesday that he didn’t believe Kahlon would leave the Likud.

“He explicitly told me that he was staying in the Likud. He said the same thing publicly and I believe he will stay in the Likud,” Netanyahu said at a joint press conference with French President Francois Hollande in Paris.

Among the most popular government ministers, Kahlon said two weeks ago that he was taking a “time out” from politics, but did agree to help Netanyahu shape his “100-day plan” for a new government. He said he intended to campaign for the Likud and take “an active role” in ensuring it won the elections.

Kahlon chaired the Likud Central Committee meeting on Monday night at which the party approved Netanyahu’s proposal for a joint Knesset list with Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu. Netanyahu publicly embraced Kahlon at the event, and declared that Kahlon was “born in the Likud” and would “stay in the Likud.”

The survey, conducted by pollster Rafi Smith, also showed that if Kahlon were to join forces with former Kadima head Tzipi Livni, their hypothetical new centrist party would garner 26 Knesset seats, although associates of Kahlon’s indicated that such a move was unlikely.

Aides to the minister also denied claims that he had spoken in recent days with former prime minister Ehud Olmert. There were also claims that he had been in touch with other political figures, including Livni and other Likud members, about the possibility of setting up a new party.

Smith, in a Wednesday Israeli Radio interview, said that Kahlon is “the most popular minister in Israel. He would take seats from all the parties — Likud, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas and even Labor.”

On the other hand, a snap poll commissioned by Labor Wednesday revealed that if Kahlon joins the party as number 2 to Shelly Yachimovich, it would gain 32 seats, tied with Likud-Beytenu.

Kahlon was elected as a Likud MK in 2003 and quickly became a popular figure in the party and in the Knesset. Political analysts see Kahlon, one of seven children of immigrants from Libya, as a vital link between the Likud’s top leaders and the rank and file Sephardi supporters of the party.

Kahlon’s spokesperson said on Wednesday that he wasn’t aware in advance of the details of the poll. Another associate, speaking anonymously to Yedioth Ahronoth, reportedly said that Kahlon was “weighing his political future” and that in light of the poll results he was now “much more likely to leave the Likud than before.”