Polls indicate lukewarm support for Lebanon gas deal; still no clear election winner

New polls reveal lukewarm support for the Lebanon gas deal slated to be brought before the cabinet on Wednesday, while the country’s political deadlock is predicted to persist beyond November’s election, with the pro-Benjamin Netanyahu bloc just short of a majority.

In a poll conducted by Channel 12, 40 percent of the 500 respondents said that, based on their current understanding of the deal, they were supportive of the agreement with Lebanon, 29% said they opposed the deal, and the remaining 31% responded that they were unsure.

The agreement is expected to be presented to a special Knesset session on Wednesday afternoon following a cabinet meeting. The Knesset does not normally sit during the Sukkot holiday, but Knesset Speaker Mickey Levy called the meeting to “allow Knesset members to review its details as soon as possible.”

It is likely that sentiments towards the maritime gas deal will shift, as more details of the deal’s contents are shared with the public.

In a pre-election poll published by 103FM on Wednesday, Ayelet Shaked’s floundering Jewish Home party was inching towards the 3.25% threshold needed to enter the Knesset. The poll showed Jewish Home receiving 2.6% of total votes, up from recent polls that had her below the 2% mark.

Israeli TV polls are notably unreliable, but, nevertheless, often steer the decision-making of politicians.

Shaked has been largely frozen out by right-wing voters after she agreed to join Bennett’s broad coalition experiment in 2021, sitting alongside left-wing and Arab parties until the coalition’s collapse in June.

If Shaked and her party manage to cross the threshold in the November 1 election, it may present an opportunity for opposition leader Netanyahu to form a right-wing coalition and re-take power, given that polls have consistently projected Netanyahu at just below the 61 seats needed to form a government.

Channel 12’s Tuesday poll, which asked respondents whom they would vote for if the election was held today, showed Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc receiving 59 seats, with Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s outgoing coalition collecting 57 seats, and Hadash-Ta’al holding the other four seats.

Broken down into parties, the poll indicated that the Likud would receive 31 seats, Yesh Atid 24 seats, Religious Zionism 13 seats, National Unity party 12 seats, Shas 8 seats, United Torah Judaism 7 seats, Yisrael Beytenu 6 seats, Labor 6 seats, Meretz 5 seats, Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al each with 4 seats.

Shaked and the Arab nationalist Balad were not projected to cross the threshold.

In a head-to-head vote, 47% said they preferred Netanyahu over Lapid as prime minister, whereas 31% preferred Lapid.

In 103FM’s poll, the Likud received 32 seats, one more than the Channel 12 poll, giving the right-wing/Orthodox bloc a total of 60 seats, still short of the 61 seats needed to form a government, and the outgoing Lapid-led coalition 56.

Trailing the Likud, Yesh Atid was projected to receive 25 seats, Religious Zionism 13 seats, the National Unity party 11 seats, Shas 8 seats, United Torah Judaism 7 seats, Yisrael Beytenu 6 seats, Labor and Meretz with 5 seats each, and Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am each with 4 seats.

The Channel 12 poll was conducted by pollster Manu Geva. It included 500 respondents and had a 4.4% margin of error. The 103FM poll, conducted by Menachem Lazar, included 700 respondents and had a 3.7% margin of error.