Polls open with far-right set for historic wins in two German state elections
AfD predicted to lead in Saxony and come second in Thuringia, where far-left newcomer BSW also expected to make strong showing in what would be landmark post-WWII vote
Voters in two former East German states began casting ballots Sunday in elections expected to deal a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government and deliver big gains for the far-right AfD.
The contests in Thuringia and Saxony come just over a week after three people were killed in a suspected Islamist attack, which has fueled a bitter debate over immigration in Germany.
Opinion polls have the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead in Thuringia and a close second in Saxony, while also predicting a strong showing for the upstart far-left BSW.
The two parties have found a receptive audience in the eastern states for their criticism of the government in Berlin and of military aid to Ukraine.
An election victory for the AfD would be a landmark in Germany’s postwar history and represent a rebuke for Scholz ahead of national elections in 2025.
About 3.3 million people are eligible to vote in Saxony and nearly 1.7 million in Thuringia. Sunday’s elections are being watched nervously in Berlin: While the three parties in Scholz’s governing coalition were weak there already, they risk dropping under the 5% support threshold needed to stay in the state legislatures at all.
In both states, Scholz’s Social Democrats are polling at around six percent, while their coalition partners, the Greens and the liberal FDP, lag even further behind.
But even if the AfD does come out on top in the elections, it is unlikely to come to power because other parties have ruled out working with the far right to form a government.
Germany’s main opposition conservative party hopes to keep AfD at bay in Saxony and Thuringia after winning the European Parliament election in June.
The Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, has led Saxony since German reunification in 1990 and is banking on incumbent governor Michael Kretschmer to push it past AfD. In Thuringia, surveys show it trailing AfD, but candidate Mario Voigt hopes to cobble together a governing coalition.
Voting stations close at 6:00 pm (1600 GMT), with the first exit polls expected shortly after.
Far-right rise
Created in 2013 as an anti-euro group before morphing into an anti-immigration party, the AfD has capitalized on the fractious three-way coalition in Berlin to rise in opinion polls.
In June’s EU Parliament elections, the party scored a record 15.9 percent overall and did especially well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the biggest force.
AfD is at its strongest in the formerly communist east, and the domestic intelligence agency has the party’s branches in both Saxony and Thuringia under official surveillance as “proven right-wing extremist” groups. Its leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has been convicted of knowingly using a Nazi slogan at political events but is appealing.
Saxony is the most populous of the former East German states and has been a conservative stronghold since reunification.
Thuringia meanwhile is more rural and the only state currently led by the far-left Die Linke, a successor of East Germany’s ruling communist party.
A third former East German state, Brandenburg, is also due to hold an election later in September, where polls have the AfD ahead with around 24%.
The picture in each state is slightly different but “in any case, it is clear that the AfD will unite a very strong number of votes behind it,” Marianne Kneuer, a professor of politics at the Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden), told AFP.
The AfD has found stronger support in the east where more voters “identify with its nationalist and authoritarian positions” and many are dissatisfied with the mainstream parties, Kneuer said.
At the party’s last campaign meeting on Saturday in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, Thorsten Haentzsche, a 52-year-old voter, said he was “dreaming of an absolute majority” for the AfD.
“But we are realistic. A score of at least 33 percent would be great because it would give us a blocking minority in the (regional) parliament,” he said.
New challenger
Dissatisfaction with the government has also fed support for BSW, founded in January by the firebrand politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she quit Die Linke.
Like the AfD, Wagenknecht and her party have made hay with a dovish stance towards Russia and calls for a radical crackdown on immigration.
BSW scored an immediate success in June’s European elections, hauling in around six percent of the German vote, and is polling a strong third in Saxony and Thuringia.
Other parties’ refusal to work with the AfD leaves BSW as potentially the kingmaker in Thuringia and Saxony, despite serious policy disagreements with potential partners, especially on Ukraine.
The run-up to the votes in Saxony and Thuringia has however been dominated by an outcry over immigration stirred up by the deadly stabbing in the western city of Solingen.
The alleged attacker, a 26-year-old Syrian man with suspected links to the Islamic State group, was slated for deportation but evaded attempts by authorities to remove him.
The government has sought to respond to the alarm by announcing stricter knife controls and rules for migrants in Germany illegally.
The conservative CDU, which holds hopes of winning both elections, has said the initial measures do not go far enough and urged a halt to arrivals from Syria and Afghanistan.
