The Biden Legacy: Foreign Policy and still the remain Opportunities for a Great Legacy

Summary: Joe Biden’s presidency, particularly in foreign policy, has been characterized by significant achievements and notable missed opportunities. While his administration has forged historic agreements and aimed to shift the U.S. foreign policy approach away from ‘America First,’ these efforts have not fully restored global trust in U.S. leadership. Despite Biden’s extensive experience in foreign policy, his tenure has been challenged by rapidly evolving geopolitical dynamics, leaving behind a complex legacy that historians may appreciate more than the general public. This is especially disappointing given the high expectations for a leader with deep personal relationships with many world leaders, a profound understanding of strategic foreign policy, and a keen awareness of its impact on domestic realities. However, with five months remaining in his term, Biden still has a significant window to make impactful changes.

Biden has expressed a desire not only to end the war in Gaza but also to alter the political trajectory of the region. Although many observers assume that he will accomplish little in the remaining months of his tenure, he now faces a golden opportunity to focus on these ambitious goals. While the prospects of achieving peace in Gaza and restoring American leadership in peacemaking may seem unrealistic given current domestic and regional political realities, the potential for meaningful progress remains if pursued with determination in his remaining time in office.

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Joe Biden entered the presidency with substantial foreign policy experience, having served as Vice President under Barack Obama and as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. This background created high expectations for his administration’s ability to navigate complex international issues and restore America’s global leadership. Yet, despite several significant achievements, Biden’s foreign policy legacy remains mixed, marked by critical missed opportunities.

From the outset, Biden sought to reshape global perceptions of the United States, moving away from the isolationist policies of his predecessor. His administration successfully negotiated key agreements, including the renewal of the New START treaty with Russia, the formation of the AUKUS security pact with Australia and the UK, and re-engagement with multilateral organizations like the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Agreement. These efforts were intended to signal that “America is back,” ready to lead and collaborate on the world stage.

However, these initiatives have not fully restored trust in U.S. leadership, particularly among European allies. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 significantly damaged U.S. credibility as a reliable partner, and ongoing challenges in securing a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia highlight the difficulties Biden has faced. Despite offering significant incentives to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, including a potential military alliance and nuclear energy cooperation, the hoped-for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains elusive.

Biden’s foreign policy has also been challenged by the resurgence of Iranian influence in the Middle East, most recently highlighted by the conflict in Gaza. The war has exposed Iran’s deep and destructive involvement in regional conflicts, which some argue presents Biden with an opportunity to make a decisive move that could reshape the geopolitical landscape. By taking decisive military action to counter Iranian influence, the U.S. could reassert its power in the region, potentially deterring adversaries like China, North Korea, and Russia, while also supporting domestic reforms in allied nations like Saudi Arabia.

This move could promote broader regional stability, allowing countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq to develop more autonomous and democratic governance, free from foreign interference. Stabilizing Syria and Lebanon could help these nations recover and regain their former stability and prosperity. For Jordan, it would secure the monarchy’s borders and enhance internal stability against Iranian threats.

Most significantly, a bold military action could incentivize Saudi leadership to pursue peace with Israel, potentially paving the way for a Palestinian state-a development that could transform the Middle East. Furthermore, this action could help Biden secure the necessary support to finalize a Saudi military treaty, which could lead to a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the most influential Sunni Arab state. Such a peace deal, led by the ‘Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques,’ would be a groundbreaking development in the region.

These actions would also align with Senator Graham’s proposed legislation, which authorizes military action by the U.S. President, ensuring that Biden is not remembered as the president under whose watch Iran obtained nuclear capabilities.

However, these opportunities are not without significant risks. Any military escalation could lead to further instability and unintended consequences, particularly in a region as volatile as the Middle East. Despite its weakened economy and outdated military, the Iranian regime could still retaliate, potentially sparking a broader conflict. Israel may be impacting the most at first but it will be a price regardless for the number of casualties that is better than the alternative and likely will secure Israel future.

Yet, a limited, well-planned military action might not necessarily escalate into a full-scale war. Given Iran’s internal instability and the growing dissatisfaction among its citizens with the regime, a calculated show of force could weaken Iran’s regional influence without provoking widespread conflict. Furthermore, the Iranian regime’s activities threaten not only traditional U.S. allies but also destabilize global powers like China and Russia, who are impacted by Iranian-aligned movements such as the Houthis in Yemen disrupting the Red Sea.

China and Russia have been hesitant to escalate tensions into a broader conflict, prioritizing the stability of their economic interests over engaging in military actions that could further destabilize the region. Consequently, if the U.S. were to undertake a carefully planned military action to counter Iranian influence, it is unlikely to provoke a full-scale war involving these two powers. In fact, China and Russia might discreetly support efforts that enhance regional stability and safeguard their economic interests, particularly by ensuring safe passage through the Red Sea.

In conclusion, while Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy may be appreciated by historians for its strategic shifts and efforts to restore diplomatic norms, the broader public and international community have yet to fully recognize or feel the impact of these initiatives. The missed opportunities, particularly in stabilizing the Middle East and fully restoring trust in U.S. leadership, may well define the foreign policy chapter of Biden’s presidency. As his time in office winds down, the question remains: Can Biden still create the legacy he deserves, or will his foreign policy record be seen as a series of well-intentioned but ultimately incomplete efforts?

One could argue that acting decisively now, despite the looming national election and the associated risks, could demonstrate U.S. strength and commitment to prioritizing the concerns of allies who feel threatened by the Iranian regime. This includes nations like Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Most importantly, such a move could resonate with the Iranian people themselves, who have repeatedly shown their desire for change since Obama’s speech in Cairo. A strategic shift that curtails Iran’s influence and prevents nuclear proliferation could be supported by much of the international community and could define Biden’s legacy in the way he deserves.

It appears, however, that Biden’s team is limiting his efforts to another hostage-prisoner deal-important, but typically more suited for members of Congress than for a president known for his foreign policy strength. The world is watching, and there is still time for Biden to shape the legacy he has long sought to leave behind.

In the end, the current geopolitical landscape presents a perfect storm of circumstances-a unique opportunity for Biden to demonstrate decisive leadership. A well-calculated military action could bring regional peace, empowering citizens in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq to reclaim their countries from external influences, reassuring Jordan and other allies, and potentially creating the conditions for a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace. Let us hope that this opportunity will be heard, considered, and acted upon, allowing Biden to craft the legacy that both he and the world need.

By David Avital on the board of advisors of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy

executive committee of the Common Good, One Voice Movement, /Center for American Progress, and the Institute for National Security Studies was a member of the executive committee of IPF