US assessment: Hamas likely to pose armed threat to Israel ‘for years to come’
Intel report says IDF ‘will struggle to neutralize’ terror group’s tunnel network in Gaza, predicts massive Israeli protests calling for elections and demanding Netanyahu resign
Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief
An annual threat assessment compiling US intelligence warned that Israel will be challenged by Hamas for years to come, as the country continues its military campaign aimed at destroying the Gaza-ruling terror group in response to its devastating October 7 attack on southern Israel.
“Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength and surprise Israeli forces,” the assessment reads, noting the Israeli public “broadly supports” the terror group’s destruction.
The report was finalized last month but declassified as intelligence chiefs testified in the Senate on Monday. It noted the Hamas-led October 7 onslaught and the war it triggered in Gaza have “increased tensions throughout the region as Iranian proxies and partners conduct anti-US and anti-Israel attacks, both in support of Hamas and to pressure the United States.”
“Media coverage of the destruction and loss of life are being amplified by active social media campaigns on all sides, roiling public reactions among neighboring countries and around the world,” it said.
The report further warned that Israel will face growing international pressure over “the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, and Iranian-backed attacks will jeopardize stability in Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf, and the Red Sea.”
“The risk of escalation into direct interstate conflict, intended or otherwise, remains high.”
Hezbollah attacks meant ‘to tie down Israeli forces’
The report said the US administration believes “that Iranian leaders did not orchestrate nor had foreknowledge of the Hamas attack against Israel” on October 7, and assessed that both Israel and Iran are attempting to avoid all-out war, though conflict with the Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah could escalate.
“Hezbollah is calibrating this pressure on Israel from the north while trying to avoid a broader war that would devastate Hezbollah and Lebanon. Hezbollah’s leadership, though, probably will consider a range of retaliatory options depending on Israel’s actions in Lebanon during the upcoming year,” the report read.
In a different section, the report commented on Hezbollah’s near-daily attacks on Israel since October 8, which it said were meant “to tie down Israeli forces as they seek to eliminate Hamas in Gaza.”
“Hezbollah probably will continue to conduct provocative actions such as rocket launches against Israel throughout the conflict,” it predicted.
It also warned that Iran-backed militias in Iraq will continue attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, and that further Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and on Israel “create a real risk of broader escalation.”
Netanyahu government ‘may be in jeopardy’
The assessment highlighted domestic pressures faced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, predicting that his government’s viability “may be in jeopardy.”
“Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections. A different, more moderate government is a possibility,” the assessment read.
It also noted Netanyahu’s public opposition “to postwar diplomacy with the Palestinian Authority toward territorial compromise,” while saying “the governance and security structures in Gaza and the West Bank as well as the resolution of the humanitarian situation in Gaza and rebuilding will be key components of the long-term Israeli Palestinian relationship.”
Additionally, the report said the “continued animosity” between Hamas and Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority “will be a factor in governance outcomes as will Hamas’s broad popular support.”
“Much also will hinge on Israel’s decisions regarding how to deal with Gaza in the aftermath of its campaign as well as scale and scope of its support for the PA,” it said.
Al-Qaeda and Islamic State ‘inspired by Hamas’
At Monday’s testimony, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said terror groups al-Qaeda and the Islamic State were targeting Israelis, galvanized by Hamas and Israel’s war against the Gazan terror organization.
“While it is too early to tell, both al-Qaeda and ISIS, inspired by Hamas, have directed supporters to conduct attacks against Israeli and US interests,” Haines said.
“And we have seen how it is inspiring individuals to conduct acts of antisemitism and Islamophobic terror worldwide.”
She said that “it is likely that the Gaza conflict will have a generational impact on terrorism.”
“The crisis in Gaza is a stark example of how regional developments have the potential of broader and even global implications,” Haines warned.
The shock Hamas attack on October 7 saw thousands of terrorists invade Israel from Gaza. It left 1,200 people in Israel dead amid widespread brutalities including rape, and 253 abducted and taken to Gaza as hostages, where over half remain. Israel declared war, vowing to topple the Hamas terror regime and release the hostages.
Times of Israel staff and agencies contributed to this report.
