Millions pushed into hunger by Middle East conflict, UN says; Afghanistan, Somalia are worst off

The Middle East conflict is pushing millions of people closer to hunger, as rising fuel and transport costs drive up food prices while funding shortfalls force aid agencies to scale back assistance, the UN World Food Programme says.

Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered a regional conflict stretching across the Gulf and into Lebanon, disrupting key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, forcing vessels to reroute and sharply constraining global energy flows and supply chains.

In March, after the US-Israeli war with Iran triggered a regional conflict and disrupted key shipping routes, the WFP forecast that as many as 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if oil prices remained around $100 per barrel through June.

That scenario is now unfolding, the agency says, with benchmark crude prices staying above that level since early March.

Households in Afghanistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka are among the most seriously affected and face mounting pressure due to higher fuel costs, food price spikes, income losses and disrupted trade.

In Somalia, 6.5 million people – roughly a third of the population – are expected to face severe hunger in 2026, while Afghanistan could see 17.4 million people affected, the WFP says. The situation is projected to worsen, with an additional 2.5 million Somalis and 2.3 million Afghans at risk of falling into food insecurity if disruptions persist. Both countries are reliant on imported energy and food.

In Somalia, supplies of nutritious food for children under five suffering from moderate malnutrition will run out as soon as July, as the WFP faces an 89% funding gap in the country.

The situation is being worsened by supply chain issues, with fewer ships stopping in Somalia because of disruptions that have affected shipping in the Indian Ocean.