Poll: Anti-Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but neither side close to majority

A new poll by Channel 13 shows the bloc of parties opposing Benjamin Netanyahu in the lead ahead of next month’s election, but still far from winning the 61 seats needed for a majority in the120-seat Knesset.

The result is significant because last week’s Channel 13 poll showed the parties supporting the prime minister holding a narrow lead, after months of surveys showing that bloc trailing. But like nearly all recent polls, that one predicted that neither side would win a majority in the October 27 vote.

Today’s poll finds that the presumed anti-Netanyahu bloc would win 52 seats, compared to 51 for the presumed pro-Netanyahu camp. Arab parties would win 13 seats — eight for the Joint List and five for Ra’am. The remaining four would go to the party co-led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, which has not committed to either side.

Topping the poll is Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist opposition party, Yashar, with 22 seats, followed by Netanyahu’s Likud with 18. Tied for third are two opposition factions: the left-wing Democrats and the B’Yachad party, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, both with 11.

Today marks the first time that a Channel 13 poll has shown the Hendel-Zelekha party winning enough votes to enter the Knesset.

The poll surveyed 1,503 respondents and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent.

While horse-race polls are an almost daily occurrence in Israel in the months leading up to elections and are not seen as overly reliable, taken together the surveys can often serve as a general gauge of the political climate and where the vote may be headed.