Channel 12 poll: Likud would be largest party if elections held today, though Netanyahu bloc wouldn’t have ruling majority

A Channel 12 poll finds that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would receive 27 seats if elections were held today, and would once again be the largest party in the 120-seat Knesset.

The poll indicates that Netanyahu is enjoying increased support in the wake of the ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, as in the previous Channel 12 survey last month, Likud was polling at 24 seats.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s party, Bennett 2026, — seen as Likud’s main rival in the next election — trails in second place, with 22 seats, according to the poll. This, too, is an increase of three seats compared to the previous survey conducted by the network.

Despite Likud’s lead, the poll finds that the parties that make up the current coalition would be trailing behind the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc led by Bennett, although both blocs would be short of the 60-seat majority required to form a government.

According to Channel 12, Netanyahu’s bloc, comprised of Likud (27), Shas (9), Otzma Yehudit (8), and United Torah Judaism (7), would be nine seats short of a majority, with 51 seats.

Meanwhile, it finds that Bennett’s bloc, comprised of Bennett 2026 (22), The Democrats (11), Yesh Atid (9), Yisrael Beytenu (9), and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (8), would fall just one seat short of 60, with 59 mandates.

Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White would fall below the threshold, as would Yoaz Hendel’s HaMiluimnikim (The Reservists), and the Palestinian nationalist party Balad.

As such, Channel 12 finds that any bloc wishing to form a government would need to rely on the Islamist Ra’am party or Arab-majority Hadash-Ta’al to do so.

Both parties would receive five seats.

Bennett’s short-lived “change government” counted Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, among its numbers, but it is not clear if he or his allies would be willing to work with the party again in the future.

The poll also finds that 46% of the public believes Israel must hold elections as soon as possible, while 44% say it is best to wait until October 2026, when the government’s term ends.

Separately, Channel 12’s pollsters ask the public whether they believe Israel should establish a state commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, onslaught, and who, in their opinion, won the war.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents say that Israel must establish a state commission of inquiry, while 27% believe a government probe will suffice, and 16% said they don’t know.

Lastly, 48% of respondents believe that neither Israel nor Hamas won the war. Another 36% respond that Israel won, while 9% say Hamas did and another 7% say they don’t know.