Tens of millions of dollars wagered on Polymarket on timeline for potential US strikes on Iran

Tens of millions of dollars have been bet on the timeline for a possible US strike on Iran on the Polymarket prediction market.

Users have lost and won tens of millions of dollars on the platform over the past few months as the dates they wagered for strikes have now passed.

Further millions have been placed on the possibility of the ousting of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Odds are highest for an airstrike by June 30, at 61 percent, 1% if it happens today, and 2% tomorrow.

Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets in the world, where its users can fund event contracts through cryptocurrency, debit or credit cards and bank transfers.

The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years, opening the door for people to wager their money on the likelihood of a growing list of future events. But despite some eye-catching windfalls, traders still lose money every day.

There have been accusations of manipulations and insider trading by users of the platform. Last month, the bulk of one trader’s bids were made mere hours before US President Donald Trump announced the surprise nighttime raid that led to former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s capture, fueling online suspicions of potential insider trading because of the timing of the wagers and the trader’s narrow activity on the platform.