Poll shows Likud dropping, Gantz unlikely to make it into Knesset after Eisenkot split

A poll published by Channel 12 shows the Likud dropping slightly and Blue and White – National Union under Benny Gantz failing to cross the electoral threshold, were elections to be held today.

The poll examines the effects of the breakaway of former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot from Gantz and looks at the scenarios should he choose a joint run with other opposition candidates.

According to the poll, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud drops three seats from the previous poll to 24. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett is second with 20 seats, followed by Eisenkot with 12 in the 120-seat Knesset.

The poll gives Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu 11 seats, and Yair Golan’s left-wing The Democrats also 11. The Sephardi ultra-Orthodox Shas drops to 8, current opposition chief Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid is on 7, while the Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism is also on 7.

Far-Right Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzmah Yehudit party would garner 5, as would the two Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am. Far-right Religious Zionism under Bezalel Smotrich gets 4 seats, passing the electoral threshold for the first time in several months.

The poll shows Gantz and the Arab party Balad failing to cross the threshold.

The results would give the current opposition a slim 61 seat majority, with the current coalition on 49 and the Arab parties making up the other 10.

The poll finds that should Eisenkot team up with Yesh Atid and lead the list, the joint party would get 17 seats.

If he were to join Bennett as his number two, they would become the largest party with 27 seats.

However, in both scenarios there was no major shift in the balance of power between the opposition and coalition blocs.

The poll conducted among 505 respondents had a margin of error of 4.4%.