IDF says manpower shortage to deepen in coming months; there will soon be 80-90,000 draft dodgers

By Sam Sokol 20 May 2026, 10:25 am

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Sam Sokol is a former political correspondent at The Times of Israel. He was previously a reporter for the Jerusalem Post, Jewish Telegraphic Agency and Haaretz. He is the author of "Putin’s Hybrid War and the Jews"

Brig. Gen. Shay Tayeb, head of the IDF Personnel Directorate’s Planning and Personnel Management Division, at a Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee meeting at the Knesset, May 20, 2026. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The IDF’s manpower shortage is expected to grow considerably in the coming months, as the first cohort of troops serving a shortened enlistment of 30 months is discharged in January 2027, a senior IDF officer tells lawmakers.

Addressing the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Brig. Gen. Shay Tayeb, head of the IDF Personnel Directorate’s Planning and Personnel Management Division, says that the number of missing troops is slated to soon rise from 12,000 to 17,000 — despite a small but insufficient increase in Haredi recruits from around 700 annually before the war to around 2,800 currently.

In addition, there are currently around 32,000 people classified as draft evaders, with an additional 50,000-plus who have received a so-called Order 12, sent to those who do not show up to enlist when required to do so.

“We will very soon reach the region of 80,000-90,000 draft dodgers,” Tayeb says, adding that the army is “prepared to absorb twice as many” Haredim as are currently enlisting.

Tayeb’s warning comes only days after Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir told the committee that the military needs more soldiers “immediately,” amid ongoing multifront fighting and the IDF issued a warning that the military could “collapse” due to its manpower woes.

Turning to the coalition’s ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bill, which was returned to the Knesset agenda this morning, Tayeb says that the IDF was “not presented with a new draft that was substantially different from the previous versions that we discussed in dozens of discussions last time.”

Addressing the committee in December, Tayeb said that the legislation fell short of solving the IDF’s manpower shortage. In January, he told lawmakers that up to 80 percent of all draft evaders are ultra-Orthodox.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has several times urged the government to again extend mandatory military service for men to 36 months, after it was shortened to 30 months in August 2024. The government has so far refused to approve the move.