Israel-Saudi deal ‘virtually impossible’ by year’s end, commentator close to Saudi leadership tells NYT

US President Donald Trump (left) arrives with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the group photo with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14, 2025. (Alex Brandon/AP)
US President Donald Trump (left) arrives with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the group photo with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders during the GCC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 14, 2025. (Alex Brandon/AP)

Despite US President Donald Trump’s optimism, an Israel-Saudi normalization deal is “virtually impossible” by the year’s end and would require a “miraculous change” in Jerusalem, a Saudi commentator close to the kingdom’s leadership tells The New York Times.

The comment comes ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reported upcoming trip to Washington, DC, this month, when Trump will likely push the issue.

Ali Shihabi, the Saudi commentator, says a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is “virtually impossible” by the end of the year, “unless a miraculous change took place in Israel.”

Shihabi says that MBS is insisting that Israel take an “irrevocable, major step toward a Palestinian state” before normalization — a measure unlikely due to the current right-wing government’s opposition to a two-state solution.

A normalization deal is Riyadh’s only leverage left to use on behalf of the Palestinians, and “the kingdom wants to use that card to try and solve the problem once and for all for the benefit of the long elusive regional stability,” he tells The Times.

During his visit, MBS will be focused on signing a mutual defense pact, a US official and another person familiar with the trip tell The Times.

The agreement would be similar to a recent deal signed with Qatar, the officials say.

The Saudis also want to try to acquire F-35s, America’s most advanced fighter jet, while advancing a deal that would allow it to build a civilian nuclear program, the officials say.

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