Poll: Biden holds two-point lead over Trump following hush money trial conviction

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – US President Joe Biden has a marginal 2 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Donald Trump in the race to win the November presidential election, following Trump’s historic conviction by a jury on charges he falsified business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed today.

Some 41% of registered voters in the two-day poll, carried out in the hours after Trump’s conviction by a Manhattan jury yesterday, say they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, while 39% pick former US president Trump. Some 20% of voters in the poll say they have not picked a candidate, are leaning toward third-party options or may not vote at all in the November 5 election.

Biden’s lead is within the survey’s roughly 2 percentage point margin of error for registered voters, many of whom remain on the fence with about five months left before the November 5 election. A prior Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted May 7-14 showed Trump and Biden tied with 40% support each.

The poll finds 10% of respondents would pick Robert Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist running as an independent, if he were on the ballot with Trump and Biden. The prior poll conducted showed Kennedy with 13% support.

While nationwide surveys give important signals on American support for political candidates, just a handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the US electoral college, which ultimately decides who wins a presidential election.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll includes responses from 2,135 registered voters who were surveyed online.