Most citizens of nine EU countries see ‘high risk’ of war with Russia, poll finds

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives for an awards ceremony marking the National Unity Day at the Kremlin in Moscow on November 4, 2025 (Maxim Shipenkov/Pool/ AFP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives for an awards ceremony marking the National Unity Day at the Kremlin in Moscow on November 4, 2025 (Maxim Shipenkov/Pool/ AFP)

A majority of citizens across nine EU countries see a high risk of war breaking out between the bloc’s members and Russia, according to a survey by polling group Cluster 17 published today in the French international affairs journal Le Grand Continent.

The poll’s findings, based on a sample of almost 10,000 people from the nine countries, come more than three-and-a-half years into the conflict sparked by Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and amid fears the war could spread further.

France’s top general Fabien Mandon last month warned Russia was preparing for a new confrontation by 2030. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that if Europe wants war, “we are ready right now.”

The US is currently brokering negotiations aimed at ending the war.

The poll showed 51 percent of respondents believe there is a “high” or “very high” risk that Russia could go to war with their country in the coming years. The study was conducted with a sample of 9,553 people at the end of November.

The countries involved in the study were France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium and the Netherlands, with samples of more than 1,000 people in each country.

The fear of open conflict with Russia varied.

In Poland, which has borders with Russia and its ally Belarus, 77% of respondents considered the risk high or very high.

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