Mladenov: Gaza faces either renewed war or permanent limbo if Trump plan not implemented

On the third anniversary of the Hamas-led October 7 massacre, US-backed Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov urges Israelis, Palestinians and the international community to support US President Donald Trump’s plan for the Strip, warning that failing to implement it will lead either to renewed war or indefinite military containment rather than a durable solution.

In an article published in the Emirati daily The National, Mladenov says Gaza now faces three possible futures: either a return to recurring war between Israel and Hamas; indefinite and limited humanitarian measures and governance; or, as the plan envisions, a transition based on disarmament of Hamas, deradicalization, Palestinian civilian governance and reconstruction.

The message comes as Trump’s plan is mostly stalled amid disagreements between the Board, Hamas and Israel over the conditions for and sequencing of Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawals. Israeli leaders have repeatedly stressed that no reconstruction of Gaza can begin before the terror group disarms.

The first scenario, Mladenov writes, would see Hamas rebuild its military capabilities and Israel prepare for another round of war, while the second would leave Gaza “suspended in a state of permanent uncertainty,” with reconstruction barely advancing.

“Despair is a poor foundation for peace and an excellent recruiting tool for extremism,” he warns, arguing that the only viable alternative is one based on “verified decommissioning of weapons, deradicalisation, accountable Palestinian civilian governance, phased Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction.”

“No serious observer should expect Israelis to think about the future as though [October 7] never happened,” the envoy adds. Addressing Israeli concerns over withdrawal, especially in light of its 2005 disengagement from Gaza, he says “security arrangements must be verified and enforced,” but adds that “walls, buffer zones and recurring military operations cannot deliver lasting security if Gaza remains permanently unstable and under the control of armed factions.”

He also argues that Gaza cannot build a different future “without confronting the ideologies and narratives that have normalised violence and extremism.”