Labor, Likud bash Yesh Atid as it rises in polls

Labor and Likud lawmakers took to the airwaves to criticize the centrist Yesh Atid party after a poll showed it would become Israel’s largest Knesset faction if elections were held today.

The poll, commissioned by Channel 2 and carried out by veteran pollster Prof. Mina Tzemach, was the latest to show the centrist party led by former finance minister Yair Lapid gaining on parliamentary rivals, and the first ever to show the party as the largest. According to the survey conducted by Tzemach’s Machon Midgam, Yesh Atid would win 24 Knesset seats, while the ruling Likud party would take just 22.

The poll was published days after a rift opened in Netanyahu’s coalition over the issue of rail repair work being done on Shabbat. After pressure from ultra-Orthodox coalition partners who threatened to leave the government, Netanyahu canceled the Shabbat work last Friday, creating a commuting nightmare throughout the country’s commercial metropolis on Sunday, and accused Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, a member of his own Likud party, of engineering a “coup.”

“Everyone is reading [the poll] in the context of the Shabbat debate,” said Likud’s Environmental Protection Minister Ze’ev Elkin, “but if you look carefully, Yesh Atid’s votes don’t come at the expense of Likud.”

While Likud would drop to 22 from its current 30, Elkin noted that those lost votes largely shifted to parties further right, including Jewish Home and Yisrael Beytenu.

The overall political map remains mostly unchanged, pundits noted. The aggregate number of seats in the three right-wing parties that make up the base for the current Netanyahu government actually grows from 44 to 46.

The coalition as a whole, including the ultra-Orthodox parties and Kulanu, drops just one seat, from 66 to 65.

Labor MK Erel Margalit said Yesh Atid was not a preferable alternative to Likud.

“The way to replace Netanyahu is not to pretend to be Netanyahu, as Lapid does, and not to try to join [Netanyahu] every other day,” a comment on stalled talks between Netanyahu and Zionist Union leader MK Isaac Herzog to bring the center-left alliance into the coalition.

“The way to do that is by leading a center-left alternative that doesn’t stutter and comes out forcefully against extremists,” Margalit added. “We will replace Netanyahu by presenting an alternative. That’s the only way.”

One key factor that could decide whether Lapid takes the prime minister’s seat away from the four-term Netanyahu is his ability to bridge differences with his ideological foes in the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Shas’s leader, Interior Minister Aryeh Deri, highlighted the low likelihood of such support on Wednesday when he, too, reacted to the poll.

“I don’t think we should get excited about various polls,” he said in an interview to Radio Kol Hai, a Haredi station. “Without question, when there are elections… and we have to recommend [a candidate for prime minister] to the president, we will recommend Bibi Netanyahu, a faithful ally, a man who kept his promises.”

Formed by Lapid in 2012, Yesh Atid stormed to a surprising 19-seat success in the 2013 elections for the Knesset, becoming the second-largest party and joining the Likud in a coalition.

In the 2015 elections the party slid to the 11 seats it currently holds in the Knesset, where it now sits in the opposition.

The Zionist Union — an amalgam of the once-mighty Labor and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua, and currently the second-largest party — would win a paltry 13 seats, making it tied for third-largest party with the Arab Joint List.

Netanyahu has served as prime minister since 2009, winning three straight elections. While elections aren’t scheduled until 2019, some analysts predict Netanyahu’s shaky coalition of 66 seats may fall before then.

In its initial response to the poll, Likud urged calm, recalling polls ahead of elections in March 2015 that showed it at risk of losing power to the Zionist Union. “We all remember that in the last elections they prophesied the Likud would get 18 seats and we saw what happened,” the party said in a statement. Likud won 30 seats and retained power; Zionist Union scored 24 seats.

“It is clear that the survey is the result of the crisis on Saturday, and it is behind us,” the party said. “Likud voters will return when they understand that Lapid is a leftist leading a left-wing party, which will push concessions and withdrawals that will endanger the security of Israel.”

The predictions matched similar results from two polls last month that also saw Yesh Atid making large gains.

One poll, conducted by the Geocartographia institute for Army Radio, gave the Zionist Union list just eight seats. Yesh Atid, meanwhile, seemed to pick up much of that loss, jumping to 22. It also showed Likud dropping to 25 seats, which would still leave it as the largest party.

Another poll, conducted by the Ma’agar Mohot polling firm for Radio Lelo Hafsaka 103FM, tracked closely with the Army Radio survey. In it, Zionist Union dropped from 24 to 10, Yesh Atid jumped to 21 and Likud dipped slightly from 30 to 27.