Researchers: 35,000 US lives could’ve been saved with earlier social distancing

More than 35,000 lives would have been saved in the US if social distancing measures had begun just a week earlier than they actually did in mid-March, according to a new estimate by researchers at Columbia University.

They say simulations based on several models show that 61 percent of the US cases of infection as of May 3 — more than 700,000 — and 55 percent of the more than 65,000 recorded deaths could have been averted if social distancing and other safety measures had been in place a week earlier.

These researchers say the simulations illustrate the danger of easing lockdown measures too early, as many experts have noted. All 50 US states have begun to reopen, to one extent or another and with encouragement from US President Donald Trump, to try to resurrect economies devastated by business closures and layoffs in the pandemic.

“Efforts to further raise public awareness of the ongoing high transmissibility and explosive growth potential of COVID-19 are still needed at this critical time,” the researchers write.

“Our results also indicate that without sufficient broader testing and contact tracing capacity, the long lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation masks the rebound and exponential growth of COVID-19 until it is well underway,” they say.

The United States is the country hardest hit by the pandemic, with more than 1.5 million cases of infection and more than 93,000 deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

— AFP