Polymarket bets suggest government insider trying to manipulate odds in PM’s favor — report

A series of bets on the prediction market Polymarket suggests that a government insider is trying to improve Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s odds on the platform ahead of the upcoming election, according to a Haaretz investigation.

The investigation found that, just ahead of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, someone with the username 25xp correctly predicted that the agreement would be signed, and reaped a $200,000 windfall on slim odds, indicating that they had inside information. That was the only bet the user made until recently, according to the report.

Lately, however, 25xp has been placing bets totalling $40,000 on Netanyahu winning the election, controlling about 25% of the site’s market share on that topic, according to Haaretz. Another user, the more transparently named OnlyBibi2026, is also placing large bets for the prime minister, Haaretz says.

The large bets from 25xp have come right when the premier’s poll numbers drop, or as his odds fall on the site, suggesting that they are efforts to arrest his decline and manipulate his odds on the site to make it seem like he’s in a better position than he might be otherwise.

The report notes that the suspected effort is taking place as Polymarket is seen by many to be a useful predictor of future events. The site has faced accusations of hosting insider gambling on military conflicts, which it says it tries to combat.

In March, an Air Force major was charged with using classified info to place bets on the 2025 war with Iran. Earlier this year, a Times of Israel reporter faced death threats from Polymarket gamblers demanding he insert false information into an article.