Plurality of far-right voters oppose government with ultra-Orthodox parties — poll

A plurality of Israelis planning to vote for Zionist parties — including those planning to back a pair of far-right factions — oppose forming a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties after the upcoming election, according to a poll published Thursday on The Times of Israel’s Hebrew-language sister site, Zman Yisrael.

The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, after Zionist opposition leaders — whose parties still fall short of a majority, according to the poll — sparred over the possibility of an alliance with Haredim, whom they abhor for pursuing a statutory exemption from military service.

Large majorities of all Zionist opposition party backers were opposed to forming a government with Haredi parties, the poll showed.

But opponents of a government with Haredi parties also included large shares of respondents who support Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, the far-right parties currently in a coalition with Likud and ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.

Among supporters of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, 38.9 percent said they oppose a government with ultra-Orthodox parties, an identical number said they support a government with ultra-Orthodox parties and 22.2% said they have no opinion on the matter.

Among supporters of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, 59.1% said they oppose such a government, 22.7% said they support such a government and 18.2% said they have no opinion.

Among supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, meanwhile, just 24.2% said they oppose a government with ultra-Orthodox parties, while 56% said they support such a government and 19.8% said they have no opinion.

The traditionalist Arab party Ra’am — which most Zionist opposition leaders have rejected as a coalition partner despite previously governing with it — also had a plurality of supporters who were in favor of a government with ultra-Orthodox parties, with 42.9% in favor, 28.6% against and another 28.6% with no opinion.

Respondents who support fellow Arab-majority party Hadash-Ta’al — an alliance of communist and secularist factions — were more ambivalent, with 47.4% saying they had no opinion on the matter, while 31.6% said they oppose a government with the ultra-Orthodox and 21.1% saying they support such a government.

In the Zionist opposition, while majorities of all parties’ supporters opposed governing with the ultra-Orthodox, that majority was significantly smaller among supporters of the centrist Yashar, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Channel 12 reported Sunday that Eisenkot held a secret, amicable meeting with UTJ grandee Moshe Gafni earlier this month after a leading rabbi of the Ashkenazi Haredi party called to topple the government over its failure to codify the Haredi draft exemption.

The meeting triggered criticism from right-wing former prime minister Naftali Bennett — the Zionist opposition’s main candidate for the premiership — who doubled down on his vows to draft Haredim and keep Haredi parties out of government.

Eisenkot — whose Yashar party is steadily gnawing away at Bennett’s lead in the Zionist opposition, according to recent Zman Yisrael polls — rejected criticism of the meeting as “populist statements” from people who failed to draft Haredim while in power.

In the latest Zman Yisrael poll, 60.9% of Yashar supporters said they oppose forming a government with ultra-Orthodox parties, while 23.2% said they support forming such a government and 15.9% said they have no opinion.

Among supporters of Together — which Bennett leads with Opposition Leader Yair Lapid as deputy — 86% said they oppose forming a government with ultra-Orthodox parties and 14% said they support forming such a government. All Together supporters had an opinion on the matter.

Among supporters of Yisrael Beytenu, the hawkish, secular faction led by veteran MK Avigdor Liberman, 84.6% said they oppose forming a government with ultra-Orthodox parties, and 15.4% said they have no opinion on the matter.

Among supporters of The Democrats, the left-leaning party led by former deputy IDF chief Yair Golan, 87.1% said they oppose forming such a government, and 12.9% said they have no opinion.

Like Eisenkot, Golan drew criticism from Bennett on Wednesday after an undated video published by the right-wing Channel 14 showed the Democrats leader saying he would not rule out Haredim as coalition partners to keep Netanyahu, Ben Gvir and Smotrich out of government. Golan subsequently walked back his comments.

No supporters of either The Democrats or Yisrael Beytenu were in favor of governing with ultra-Orthodox parties.

Electoral stalemate persists

For the second week running, the Zman Yisrael poll showed Smotrich’s Religious Zionism crossing the electoral threshold and winning four of the Knesset’s 120 seats if elections were held today, though the result was within the margin of error.

The poll also awarded 24 seats to Likud, 10 seats to Shas, eight seats to UTJ and six seats to Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit. The results were identical to last week’s poll except with regard to Shas, which was up one from last week. In total, Netanyahu and his current coalition partners would pick up 52 seats, up one from last week, according to the poll.

Zionist opposition parties would receive 58 seats — three short of a majority. The poll awarded 22 seats to Bennett’s Together, down two from last week; 18 to Eisenkot’s Yashar, up two from last week; 10 to Yisrael Beytenu, up one from last week; and eight to The Democrats, the same as last week.

Centrist opposition party Blue and White, led by former IDF chief Benny Gantz, failed to pass the electoral threshold, after receiving four seats last week. Unlike other Zionist opposition leaders, Gantz has expressed openness to governing with Netanyahu.

Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al each picked up five seats in the latest poll, after respectively receiving five and four in last week’s poll.

The two parties and the smaller nationalist party Balad appealed this week to Ra’am to revive the Arab factions’ Joint List. The appeal followed months of deadlock in negotiations, with Ra’am agreeing in principle to a union but insisting on independent freedom of action.

The Zman Yisrael poll showed the Joint List would receive 13 seats if elections were held today, three more than the Arab parties’ cumulative result if they run separately.

The Joint List’s three seats would come one each from Likud, Yashar and The Democrats, the survey found.

The next elections are set to be held by October 27 at the latest. Lawmakers are set to vote on the Knesset’s dissolution on Monday.

The Zman Yisrael poll was conducted on May 27-28 by Tatika Research and Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel. The sample size was 500 and the margin of error was ±4.4%.

A separate poll published Thursday by Channel 12 showed the Zionist opposition just two seats short of a majority in the Knesset. The poll awarded 23 seats to Likud; 22 seats to Together; 17 seats to Yashar; 11 seats to The Democrats; nine seats to Yisrael Beytenu; eight seats each to Shas, Otzma Yehudit and UTJ; five seats each to Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am; and four seats to Religious Zionism.

In total, Netanyahu and his current coalition partners would receive 51 seats, the Zionist opposition parties would receive 59 seats, and the Arab parties would receive ten seats, according to the Channel 12 poll.

The poll also showed that, asked if they preferred Bennett or Eisenkot as a candidate for premier, 45% of Zionist opposition supporters preferred Eisenkot, 36% preferred Bennett, 11% said they preferred a different candidate and 8% said they don’t know.

The Channel 12 poll was conducted by the Midgam polling firm on May 28. The sample size was 504, and the margin of error was ±4.4%.